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Prediction markets for FIG

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.39%chance

12622502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2887

249

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

44

35

21

1

Will Mihawk and Zoro fight again before the end of One Piece?

Mar 6, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.64%chance

10812776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1984

1830

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will Akainu fight Luffy?

Nov 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.82%chance

353730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2007

166

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.46%chance

131749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

1194

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

2026 Winter Olympics: Figure Skating Gold Medal Winner (W)

Jan 12, 12:12 PMFeb 16, 11:59 PM

3364

OptionProbability

Adeliia PETROSIAN (AIN)

Alysa LIU (USA)

Amber GLENN (USA)

Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)

Other

22

22

22

20

15

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Fig, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:45 AM

80

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