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Prediction markets for FIG

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

81.55%chance

159140745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2658

1132

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.18%chance

12722514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

261

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

44

35

21

1

Will Mihawk and Zoro fight again before the end of One Piece?

Mar 6, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.66%chance

10812962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2098

1805

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will Akainu fight Luffy?

Nov 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

393930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1903

189

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.61%chance

552029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

970

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.46%chance

131749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

1194

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?

Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.13%chance

221698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

882

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will I @henrithunberg like the following movies if I watch them?

Jan 11, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13473

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Banshees of Insherin

Tár

Drive My Car

The Guilty (2018)

Blue Valentine (2010)

Conclave

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Mommy (2014)

The 400 Blows (1959)

The Lunchbox (2013)

Saraband (2003)

Shoplifters (2018)

Winter Sleep (2014)

Sharknado

Barbie

100

100

100

62

59

56

52

50

46

46

46

44

43

43

36

0

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Fig, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:45 AM

80

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