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Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.39%chance

12622502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2887

249

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

44

35

21

1

Will Mihawk and Zoro fight again before the end of One Piece?

Mar 6, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.66%chance

10812962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2098

1805

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

Will Akainu fight Luffy?

Nov 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.82%chance

353730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2007

166

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

2026 World Figure Skating Championships: Women's Gold Medal Winner

Mar 17, 7:09 AMMar 25, 11:59 AM

51796

OptionProbability

Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)

Ami NAKAI (JPN)

Amber GLENN (USA)

Other

Mone CHIBA (JPN)

50

23

17

6

3

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.46%chance

131749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

1194

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will I @henrithunberg like the following movies if I watch them?

Jan 11, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13473

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Tár

Banshees of Insherin

Drive My Car

The Guilty (2018)

Blue Valentine (2010)

Conclave

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Mommy (2014)

The 400 Blows (1959)

The Lunchbox (2013)

Saraband (2003)

Shoplifters (2018)

Winter Sleep (2014)

Sharknado

Barbie

100

100

62

62

59

56

52

50

46

46

46

44

43

43

36

0

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Fig, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:45 AM

80

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