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Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

Which figures/organizations will condemn Trump for lies told about the 2024 election results, after the election?

Jul 8, 3:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30125344

OptionProbability

Fox News

Mike Johnson (speaker of the house)

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Mitch McConnell

2

2

2

1

1

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.3%chance

14627602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2113

473

Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

Feb 14, 1:07 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.39%chance

12622502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2887

249

Will Mihawk and Zoro fight again before the end of One Piece?

Mar 6, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.64%chance

10812776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1984

1830

Will Elon Musk beat Mark Zuckerberg if they fight in a cage match?

Jun 22, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.71%chance

809863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

1424

Will Akainu fight Luffy?

Nov 12, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.82%chance

343710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2007

166

Will democrats “win” the shutdown fight?

Oct 29, 3:49 PMDec 31, 4:24 PM

48.84%chance

231927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

1001

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?

Jan 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

64.77%chance

131549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

994

Will I @henrithunberg like the following movies if I watch them?

Jan 11, 10:51 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13473

OptionProbability

Oppenheimer

Tár

Banshees of Insherin

Drive My Car

The Guilty (2018)

Blue Valentine (2010)

Conclave

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Mommy (2014)

The 400 Blows (1959)

The Lunchbox (2013)

Saraband (2003)

Shoplifters (2018)

Winter Sleep (2014)

Sharknado

Barbie

100

63

62

62

59

56

52

50

46

46

46

44

43

43

36

0

If you had to go on a date with Cabbage or Fig, which one would you pick?

Oct 1, 4:45 AM

80

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