Figure AI News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

16706

12559

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

3727127

OptionProbability

Other

$90-100B

$80-90B

$100-110B

$110-120B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$50-60B

$40-50B

<$40B

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69.99%chance

8526818

OptionVotes

YES

1527

655

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

YES

1388

721

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

72.12%chance

202561

OptionVotes

YES

1105

860

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

May 4, 2:42 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

391914

OptionProbability

He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator

He will be male

He will be a citizen of the USA

As of May 2024 he is already a well-known figure in AI

AGI will manifest itself from a collection of open-source projects and nobody will really understand 'which human' created it.

He will be Jewish

He will be balding

He will have attended a Manifest

He will be 30-years-old or younger

He will be transgender

He will have been in space

Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production?

Apr 18, 12:09 AMOct 13, 6:59 AM

19658

OptionProbability

Other

Digit- Agility Robotics

Tesla-Optimus

Boston Dynamics - Atlas

Figure AI - Figure 01

By what year will AI figure out how to beat The Outer Wilds?

Aug 2, 6:49 PMAug 9, 9:59 PM

13484

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2030

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Jan 9, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.44%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will AI figure out who has the highest processing speed to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.04%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Figure AI News

Prediction markets for Figure AI

Prediction markets for Figure AI

Prediction markets for Figure AI

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production?

By what year will AI figure out how to beat The Outer Wilds?

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Will AI figure out who has the highest processing speed to working memory ratio by 2030?

Will AI figure out who has the highest visual frame compression efficiency to working memory ratio by 2030?

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