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Prediction markets for Figure Markets

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.23%chance

471686687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17407

10222

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.91%chance

9443785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

921

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65.64%chance

18239535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12025

8721

Universal Love Market - Which public figures will get engaged before 2026? [Unlinked Free Response]

Oct 13, 7:35 PMJan 1, 8:42 PM

439770

OptionProbability

Taylor Swift

Zendaya

Tim Scott

Travis Kelce

Miley Cyrus

Jimmy Carter

Jeff Bezos

Kanye West

Ariana Grande

Tom Brady

Pete Davidson

Elon Musk

Timothée Chalamet

Leonardo DiCaprio

Donald Trump

Kim Kardashian

Britney Spears

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Bill Gates

John Mayer

Aella

Josh Allen

100

100

100

100

99

50

38

27

25

19

16

15

15

15

15

15

14

11

11

8

7

4

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Apr 7, 1:59 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

14.31%chance

117255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12235

2473

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

58.06%chance

885239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

20.43%chance

74874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9864

2540

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

22432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

53.96%chance

151698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10382

9514

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.94%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10076

9896

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