Figure Markets News

YES

YES

YES

YES

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

NO

YES

YES

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YES

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0