Figure Robotics News

Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.

We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).

Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.

No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.

Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

YES

NO

NO

Runs entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines

The existence of the AGI and the model name were leaked prior to release and official announcement

Developed by a US company

Trained with synthetic data and self-play

Doomsday clock moved at least one full minute closer to midnight due to this AI

Transformer based or mix of Transformer and other architectures

Has an internal World Model able to simulate basic physics without external tools

Not available in EU countries initially for the first 4 months after public release

Based on/inspired by algorithms from the human brain (beyond neural networks).

Public announcement was made after 1 year or more of finishing training

Not a static model; weights change during inference

Used by a Figure humanoid robot

Infinite context window

Solves at least one of the seven Millennium Problems

This market will resolve N/A

Based on/inspired by OpenAI's Sora (resolves YES if explicitly stated by developers in announcement or paper)

Is OpenAI's GPT-6, whatever name or architecture it has

No consensus that it's AGI until over a month after being announced and interacting with people outside the lab.

Developed by a Chinese company

Open sourced

Developed by the open-source community instead of a company

Developed by an EU company

Until 2026

Until 2027

NO

YES

2029

YES

After 2031

2023-2024

2025-2026

2027-2028