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Top stories

Blockchain Lender Figure Technology Files for Nasdaq IPO, Reports $191 Million Revenue and $29 Million Profit in H1 2025

Company Earnings

Blockchain Lender Figure Technology Files for Nasdaq IPO, Reports $191 Million Revenue and $29 Million Profit in H1 2025

Authors

18

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Figure

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

80%chance

159140672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

1172

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415285

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

44

35

21

1

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2026?

Jan 3, 12:26 AMJan 1, 12:23 AM

65.82%chance

455116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

721

Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?

Apr 30, 12:47 AMDec 26, 1:29 AM

8.5%chance

294072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3312

308

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

72.12%chance

202561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

860

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.52%chance

311943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

970

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?

Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.13%chance

221698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

882

Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?

Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

111189

OptionProbability

At least one person who has won an Emmy

At least one person who has won a Grammy

None

At least one house representative.

At least one senator.

At least one governor.

15

15

13

9

9

6

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.42%chance

17605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

874

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.77%chance

16544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1385

756

2026 Winter Olympics: Figure Skating Gold Medal Winner (W)

Jan 12, 12:12 PMFeb 16, 11:59 PM

3364

OptionProbability

Adeliia PETROSIAN (AIN)

Alysa LIU (USA)

Amber GLENN (USA)

Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)

Other

22

22

22

20

15

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