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Top stories

Blockchain Lender Figure Technology Files for Nasdaq IPO, Reports $191 Million Revenue and $29 Million Profit in H1 2025

Company Earnings

Blockchain Lender Figure Technology Files for Nasdaq IPO, Reports $191 Million Revenue and $29 Million Profit in H1 2025

Authors

18

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Figure

Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.

Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM

89.45%chance

159141024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4067

903

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8415305

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

43

35

21

1

Donald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?

Apr 30, 12:47 AMDec 26, 1:29 AM

8.72%chance

304107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3268

312

Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?

Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM

72.12%chance

202561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

860

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.52%chance

311943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

970

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?

Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.27%chance

241778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

931

Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?

Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

111190

OptionProbability

At least one person who has won an Emmy

At least one person who has won a Grammy

None

At least one house representative.

At least one senator.

At least one governor.

15

15

13

9

9

6

Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030

May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.58%chance

211069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

435

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

Cloned historical figure born before 2036

Jun 1, 12:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.42%chance

17605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

874

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.84%chance

17594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

740

Will another assassination of a public figure happen on a college campus before 2027?

Sep 15, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.47%chance

23298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

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