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Prediction markets for Figure
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM
80%chance
159140672
OptionVotes
2490
1172
OptionProbability
44
35
21
1
OptionVotes
3312
308
Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?
Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM
72.12%chance
202561
OptionVotes
1105
860
Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?
Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
75.52%chance
311943
OptionVotes
1045
970
2026 World Figure Skating Championships: Women's Gold Medal Winner
Mar 17, 7:09 AMMar 25, 11:59 AM
51796
OptionProbability
50
23
17
6
3
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
36.13%chance
221698
OptionVotes
1030
882
Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?
Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
111189
OptionProbability
15
15
13
9
9
6
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030
May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.58%chance
211069
OptionVotes
1276
435
Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?
Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.26%chance
18788
OptionVotes
1059
954
OptionVotes
1413
874
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
Feb 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
74.77%chance
16544
OptionVotes
1385
756