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Prediction markets for Film Academy

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

885

Which films will win an Oscar at the 98th Academy Awards?

Jul 3, 3:44 PMJul 10, 8:59 PM

7897

OptionProbability

Mickey 17

1

Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at Oscars 2027?

Apr 5, 7:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

52.41%chance

29660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will Timothee Chalamet win an Oscar before 2030?

Mar 16, 10:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49%chance

11312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.15%chance

10280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

71

When will Paul Thomas Anderson’s next feature film be released?

Apr 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 2:16 AM

4130

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2029

2028

Before 2028

Never / no future films

39

28

20

7

6

How many films from the 2026 Cannes Film Festival Competition will receive an Academy Award nomination?

May 23, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

266

OptionProbability

0-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9+

20

20

20

20

20

Joel Haver wins an academy award before 2030

Mar 6, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

92

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