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Prediction markets for Film Academy

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

Mar 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.13%chance

171013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1814

885

Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at Oscars 2027?

Apr 5, 7:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

68.41%chance

35826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will The Odyssey receive the most Oscar nominations?

Sep 21, 10:10 AMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

76.63%chance

5784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

949

Will Timothee Chalamet win an Oscar before 2030?

Mar 16, 10:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49%chance

11312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.15%chance

10280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

71

Will a film containing AI-generated video win an Oscar at the 2027 Academy Awards?

Aug 8, 7:46 AMMar 14, 2:00 AM

21%chance

14247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

When will Paul Thomas Anderson’s next feature film be released?

Apr 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 2:16 AM

4130

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2029

2028

Before 2028

Never / no future films

39

28

20

7

6

How many films from the 2026 Cannes Film Festival Competition will receive an Academy Award nomination?

May 23, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

266

OptionProbability

0-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9+

20

20

20

20

20

Joel Haver wins an academy award before 2030

Mar 6, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.96%chance

432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

92

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