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Prediction markets for Finality

Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece

Jan 3, 10:26 PMNov 3, 4:59 AM

33.83%chance

17720869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

367

Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?

Jul 24, 10:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.28%chance

789417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

900

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

85.49%chance

606516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1726

1171

Will Zvi's "final warning" be heeded by the end of June 2027?

Sep 7, 4:18 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.66%chance

122606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1702

588

Will a European team make it to the 2030 FIFA World Cup Final?

Jul 30, 5:00 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

82.01%chance

142435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2135

468

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

Will Donald Trump finally get sentenced to the Big House (or worse) after he leaves office in 2029?

Mar 31, 1:26 PMAug 9, 11:59 PM

19.45%chance

61175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2035

491

Will 'The Boy and the Heron' be Hayao Miyazaki's final movie?

Nov 22, 4:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.62%chance

271100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

956

When will the final resolved market on Manifold be resolved?

Apr 6, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19906

OptionProbability

2044-2048

2040-2044

2028-2032

2036-2040

2032-2036

2024-2028

2048-2052

2052-2056

2092-2096

2176-2178

2056-2060

2060-2064

2064-2068

2068-2072

2072-2076

2076-2080

2080-2084

2084-2088

2088-2092

2096-2100

2100-2104

2104-2108

2108-2112

2112-2116

2116-2120

2120-2124

2124-2128

2128-2132

2132-2136

2136-2140

2140-2144

2144-2148

2148-2152

2152-2156

2156-2160

2160-2164

2164-2168

2168-2172

2172-2176

26

17

11

11

10

9

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a new “final” Beatles song this decade?

Nov 5, 9:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.54%chance

11209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

963

Thomas Tuchel decision market - will England make it to the final of the Euros?

Jul 18, 9:53 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

**Assuming Tuchel sacked** England make it to the final of the Euros

**Assuming Tuchel NOT sacked** England make it to the final of the Euros

50

50

Which team will win the 2027 TGL Finals?

Nov 6, 8:27 AMMar 24, 7:00 PM

00

OptionProbability

Atlanta Drive GC

The Bay Golf Club

Boston Common Golf

Jupiter Links GC

Los Angeles Golf Club

Motor City Golf Club

New York Golf Club

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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