Finance News

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

11911172

OptionVotes

YES

1974

1824

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

23.16%chance

232453

OptionVotes

YES

1822

549

Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to violating campaign finance laws by the end of 2026?

Mar 22, 2:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.18%chance

161849

OptionVotes

YES

1440

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21028

OptionProbability

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Jan 7, 5:45 AMJan 7, 5:41 AM

9913

OptionProbability

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Government / defence

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

Dec 17, 12:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8807

OptionProbability

Automatic Voter Registration Act

Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

Automatic Voter Registration

Early voting

Mail-in voting

Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

Banning Super PACs

Public Financing for Candidates

Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

Ranked-Choice Voting

Approval Voting

Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

Compulsory voting

What will be my employment status in May 2026?

May 1, 1:39 AMMay 1, 11:59 PM

9395

OptionProbability

Other

Working in AI

Enrolled in grad school

Working in finance

No full time job

Being an exotic courtisan to a cabal of shadowy post-ASI powerbrokers

Which former Forbes 30 Under 30 winners be convicted of a crime by January 1, 2027?

Oct 28, 10:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2348

OptionProbability

Ham Serunjogi (Finance, 2023)

Hayden Adams (Finance, 2023)

Reid Waldman (Healthcare, 2024)

Carter Frazee (Finance, 2024)

Marc Baghadjian, Nikolas Ioannou (Finance, 2024)

Dina Radenkovic (Healthcare, 2023)

Who Will be Finance Minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

Jan 25, 11:08 PMNov 21, 11:08 PM

1322

OptionProbability

Nicola Willis

Barbara Edmonds

Other

Shane Jones

BIFI (Beefy Finance) reaches 1000 before March 31?

Jan 10, 7:11 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

8.89%chance

4290

OptionVotes

YES

320

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

Oct 17, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.95%chance

7129

OptionVotes

YES

125

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

Finance News

Prediction markets for Finance

Prediction markets for Finance

Prediction markets for Finance

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to violating campaign finance laws by the end of 2026?

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

What will be my employment status in May 2026?

Which former Forbes 30 Under 30 winners be convicted of a crime by January 1, 2027?

Who Will be Finance Minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

BIFI (Beefy Finance) reaches 1000 before March 31?

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

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