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Prediction markets for Finance

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

11911172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1974

1824

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

23.16%chance

232453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

549

Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to violating campaign finance laws by the end of 2026?

Mar 22, 2:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.18%chance

161849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1440

31

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21028

OptionProbability

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

26

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

25

24

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Jan 7, 5:45 AMJan 7, 5:41 AM

10915

OptionProbability

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Government / defence

56

15

12

6

6

6

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

29.06%chance

10841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

640

What will be my employment status in May 2026?

May 1, 1:39 AMMay 1, 11:59 PM

9395

OptionProbability

Other

Working in AI

Enrolled in grad school

Working in finance

No full time job

Being an exotic courtisan to a cabal of shadowy post-ASI powerbrokers

29

23

16

12

11

8

If I stay as a Finance Major, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:48 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

44.24%chance

7352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

891

Who Will be Finance Minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

Jan 25, 11:08 PMNov 21, 11:08 PM

2324

OptionProbability

Nicola Willis

Barbara Edmonds

Other

Shane Jones

45

31

17

6

BIFI (Beefy Finance) reaches 1000 before March 31?

Jan 10, 7:11 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

8.89%chance

4290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

31

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

Oct 17, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.95%chance

7129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

00

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