Finance News

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

25100515

OptionProbability

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

100

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

12211392

OptionVotes

YES

2025

1915

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47208

OptionProbability

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

15%chance

253022

OptionVotes

YES

2380

420

Who Will be Finance Minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

Jan 25, 11:08 PMNov 21, 11:08 PM

71884

OptionProbability

Other

David Seymour

Barbara Edmonds

Chloe Swarbrick

Shane Jones

Nicola Willis

Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to violating campaign finance laws by the end of 2026?

Mar 22, 2:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.18%chance

161849

OptionVotes

YES

1440

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

25.22%chance

151255

OptionVotes

YES

1722

581

CI2026: Will COP31 agree on a baseline year for the objective of tripling adaptation finance?

Oct 16, 9:06 AMNov 20, 10:59 PM

15501

OptionProbability

Floating

Other

2025

2019

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

Oct 17, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.76%chance

10235

OptionVotes

YES

150

Brazil 2027: Who will be Brazil's Finance Minister in 2027?

Nov 3, 11:58 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

130

OptionProbability

Rafael Fonteles

Geraldo Alckmin

Dario Durigan

Fernando Haddad

Will San Francisco Nov 2026 Prop B (municipal finance corp & public bank) pass?

Nov 4, 8:38 PMDec 3, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

217

OptionVotes

YES

115

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

Finance News

Prediction markets for Finance

Prediction markets for Finance

Prediction markets for Finance

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

Who Will be Finance Minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to violating campaign finance laws by the end of 2026?

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

CI2026: Will COP31 agree on a baseline year for the objective of tripling adaptation finance?

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

Brazil 2027: Who will be Brazil's Finance Minister in 2027?

Will San Francisco Nov 2026 Prop B (municipal finance corp & public bank) pass?

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

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