Finance News

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.68%chance

12111391

OptionVotes

YES

2024

1915

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Apr 21, 1:25 AMNov 17, 11:59 PM

310114

OptionProbability

Second Mortgage Homebuyer Program and Revenue Bond Initiative

Vote Requirements for Initiatives Requiring Supermajority Votes Amendment

Eliminate State Officer Recall Successor Elections Amendment

Allow Public Financing of Election Campaigns Measure

Voter ID, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Initiative

Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Special Taxes and Charter City Real Estate Transfer Tax Prohibition Initiative

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

23.16%chance

232453

OptionVotes

YES

1822

549

Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to violating campaign finance laws by the end of 2026?

Mar 22, 2:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.18%chance

161849

OptionVotes

YES

1440

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21028

OptionProbability

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Jan 7, 5:45 AMJan 7, 5:41 AM

10916

OptionProbability

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Government / defence

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

29.06%chance

10841

OptionVotes

YES

1562

640

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

Dec 17, 12:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8813

OptionProbability

Automatic Voter Registration Act

Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

Automatic Voter Registration

Early voting

Mail-in voting

Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

Public Financing for Candidates

Banning Super PACs

Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

Ranked-Choice Voting

Approval Voting

Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

Compulsory voting

Which former Forbes 30 Under 30 winners be convicted of a crime by January 1, 2027?

Oct 28, 10:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2348

OptionProbability

Ham Serunjogi (Finance, 2023)

Hayden Adams (Finance, 2023)

Reid Waldman (Healthcare, 2024)

Carter Frazee (Finance, 2024)

Marc Baghadjian, Nikolas Ioannou (Finance, 2024)

Dina Radenkovic (Healthcare, 2023)

Who Will be Finance Minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

Jan 25, 11:08 PMNov 21, 11:08 PM

3329

OptionProbability

Nicola Willis

Barbara Edmonds

Other

Shane Jones

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

Oct 17, 9:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.95%chance

7129

OptionVotes

YES

125

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:14 PM

Finance News

Prediction markets for Finance

Prediction markets for Finance

Prediction markets for Finance

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to violating campaign finance laws by the end of 2026?

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

Which former Forbes 30 Under 30 winners be convicted of a crime by January 1, 2027?

Who Will be Finance Minister after the 2026 NZ Election?

OpenAI issues crypto asset for financing before 2031?

"Prediction Markets Applied to Finance" by Louis Clouatre-Latraverse - Discussion

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