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Prediction markets for Finance Department

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

4.36%chance

2811598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8972

356

Which Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?

Nov 15, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47208

OptionProbability

Chi (Clara) Xu (Wharton)

Jessica Li (Chicago)

Joanna Harris Murphy (Chicago)

Patrick Adams (MIT)

Oliver Xie (Stanford)

Meichen Qian (Chicago)

Guanyu Zhou (Wharton)

Tasaneeya Viratyosin (Wharton)

Ching-Tse Chen (Chicago)

Bianca He (Chicago)

Edoardo Marchesi (Chicago)

Filippo Cavaleri (Chicago)

Christian Kontz (Stanford)

Pauline Liang (Stanford)

97

97

97

97

97

20

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

94872

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.79%chance

292096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1778

534

Will Ilhan Omar go to prison before 2030?

Oct 24, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

21.26%chance

11173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will Hasan Piker be arrested?

May 24, 9:15 AMJan 1, 11:00 AM

36.67%chance

653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

76

Will the US formally notify a new arms sale to Taiwan (DSCA/TECRO) by November 30, 2026?

Sep 25, 8:27 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

16.68%chance

38

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

71

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