Financial Market Commission News

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.58%chance

1721452

OptionVotes

YES

35974

6720

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

84.61%chance

619024

OptionVotes

YES

23443

4266

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

73.83%chance

710697

OptionVotes

YES

16798

5953

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.1%chance

131703

OptionVotes

YES

1764

Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:55 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

81068

OptionProbability

Nothing horrible happens

Internal fraud/embezzlement

Bank or financial partner failure

Cybersecurity breach/hack

Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure

Other

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

1100

977

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

3587

OptionVotes

YES

271

Anthropic props — October ARR public before IPO?

Oct 19, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5303

OptionProbability

Will the final S-1 confirm that the co-founders retain 50.1% or more of the collective voting power?

Will Anthropic release October 2026 ARR or revenue figures before their stock publicly trades?

Will Binance Anthropic perpetuals trade higher 3 hours after the S-1 is public relative to the price right before the release?

Will Binance Anthropic perpetuals trade >5% higher 3 hours after the S-1 is public relative to the price right before the release?

Will the S-1 reveal that Anthropic's revenue is concentrated, in that 2 customers account for >20% of their latest run-rate revenue?

100

Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers?

Nov 1, 10:39 PMDec 31, 10:37 PM

22.29%chance

9176

OptionVotes

YES

187

At the end of 2030 which company will be worth more Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (Hood)?

Jun 11, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6130

OptionProbability

Robinhood (HOOD)

Coinbase (COIN)

Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?

Jun 15, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.36%chance

7100

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) be under the control of NJ Transit before 2030?

May 12, 12:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

170

Financial Market Commission News

Prediction markets for Financial Market Commission

Prediction markets for Financial Market Commission

Prediction markets for Financial Market Commission

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Anthropic props — October ARR public before IPO?

Was Haley Stevens paid to endorse Mike Rodgers?

At the end of 2030 which company will be worth more Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (Hood)?

Will the CFTC clear Polymarket for US traders by end of 2027?

Will the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) be under the control of NJ Transit before 2030?

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