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Prediction markets for Financial Markets Association

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.38%chance

30575185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8392

6180

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in vampirism?

Feb 15, 7:05 AMDec 31, 6:59 AM

21.52%chance

172051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1909

524

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.42%chance

13986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

24

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 4:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90%chance

13876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

Will the Tumbles Financial Complex 2.0 be late to pay back a loan?

May 1, 6:32 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

65.63%chance

11261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

Will any company be GDPR fined for inputting personally identifiable information into ChatGPT before 2030?

Feb 9, 2:04 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

60.48%chance

9235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

122

Will connectomics data generation costs drop below $1 million per cubic millimeter by 2027?

Jul 3, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.2%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Which Monetization Strategy Will Generate the Most Revenue for Ten Today?

Jul 3, 5:12 AMJul 3, 3:59 AM

175

OptionProbability

Merchandise

Manifold user donates money (email contact@tentoday.net to donate)

75

50

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Manifold lottery redistributive association

Aug 8, 11:38 PMAug 9, 9:59 PM

00

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