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Prediction markets for Financial sector

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

74.51%chance

563706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1719

477

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

113133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

437

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.62%chance

71465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2417

414

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

13948

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

U.S. Real Estate

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Oil and fossil fuels

Space exploration

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

51

12

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Jun 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6825

OptionProbability

2025Q1

Other

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

2027Q1

2027Q2

51

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?

Aug 2, 7:57 PMAug 1, 7:56 PM

69.01%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

42.14%chance

6433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.01%chance

5308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Aug 2, 7:55 PMAug 1, 7:43 PM

4305

OptionProbability

North Carolina (extended family here)

Seattle

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

SF

NYC

25

15

13

13

13

11

11

NYC government-run grocery stores exist on January 1, 2030?

Jun 25, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.4%chance

7238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

7221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Jamie Dimon to mention prediction markets in 2026?

Jan 17, 9:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.09%chance

8132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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