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Prediction markets for Financial sector

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

56%chance

625724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

755

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.99%chance

363347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

750

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

92218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?

Aug 2, 7:59 PMAug 1, 7:58 PM

33%chance

81122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

50

15

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026

Jan 12, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.8%chance

9877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

667

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Jun 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6825

OptionProbability

2025Q1

Other

2025Q2

2025Q3

2025Q4

2026Q1

2026Q2

2026Q3

2026Q4

2027Q1

2027Q2

51

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Feb 24, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.71%chance

19562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

NYC government-run grocery stores exist on January 1, 2030?

Jun 25, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

54.4%chance

7238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.48%chance

7231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

62

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.92%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Roadtrip: Where will I end up in one year?

Jun 23, 12:54 AMJun 23, 12:53 AM

468

OptionProbability

Seattle

SF

North Carolina (extended family here)

Parents' house (southeast)

SLC

Other

NYC

17

16

14

14

14

14

12

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