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Prediction markets for Fire Point
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
62.52%chance
3826421
OptionVotes
1294
776
Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030
Jan 9, 9:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
97452
OptionProbability
100
100
100
80
80
71
63
63
62
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will the WA SWIS annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 90 AUD per MWh?
May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM
25.33%chance
53536
OptionVotes
13504
8507
Will WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?
May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM
27.69%chance
42511
OptionVotes
12479
8876
By when will Russia attack, fight or substantially intrude into a NATO country?
Dec 16, 1:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
281894
OptionProbability
81
76
72
66
61
59
58
54
47
0
Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?
Feb 5, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
22.74%chance
161411
OptionVotes
338
111
OptionProbability
97
85
75
69
66
64
64
61
61
61
50
50
43
41
19
OptionProbability
82
77
40
3
2
1
Who, if appointed to the cabinet, will last at least two full years?
Nov 8, 10:19 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
11726
OptionProbability
90
90
66
45
32
22
16
16
16
2
Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
Jul 31, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.08%chance
13561
OptionVotes
1150
870
Will Greg Schiano finish the 2026-27 season as Rutgers Head Football Coach?
Sep 4, 3:41 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
64%chance
5172
OptionVotes
133
75
Who will be the Prologue POV character in "The Winds of Winter" by George R.R. Martin?
May 6, 12:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
10154
OptionProbability
40
20
8
7
5
5
3
3
3
3
3