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Top stories

Ukraine Tests 3,000-Km ‘Flamingo’ Missile, Plans Production Surge

Ukraine Tests 3,000-Km ‘Flamingo’ Missile, Plans Production Surge

Authors

18

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Fire Point

Cuba / Florida Speedboat Attack: Which of the following are true

Feb 25, 8:43 PMMar 27, 7:43 PM

94234

OptionProbability

People on the boat were US military or CIA (or similar) on an official mission

Major escalation before EOD Feb 26. eg >4 more new deaths

21

0

Will the Gordie Howe Bridge open to traffic in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.29%chance

42478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2408

415

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?

Feb 5, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.74%chance

161411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

338

111

Will I get into Stanford as a Transfer Undergraduate

Feb 2, 2:08 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

121095

OptionProbability

Rejection

Acceptance

Waitlist

47

41

12

will mr beast will achive 500 million subscribers before 9/11

Mar 7, 8:53 AMSep 10, 11:59 PM

30%chance

8700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

83

When will Starship land on a launch pad?

Mar 10, 3:58 AMJan 1, 3:58 AM

8593

OptionProbability

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q1

2028 Q4/Later/Never

2026 Q2

2027 Q2

2027 Q3

2027 Q4

2028 Q1

2028 Q2

2028 Q3

25

22

16

14

8

4

3

3

2

2

2

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by June 30, 2026?

Oct 12, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

60.51%chance

16386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2030?

Mar 23, 6:31 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

65.91%chance

16384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

925

Who, if appointed to the cabinet, will last at least two full years?

Nov 8, 10:19 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9378

OptionProbability

Doug Burgum

Ben Carson

Marco Rubio

Elon Musk

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Tulsi Gabbard

Vivek Ramaswamy

David Sacks

Steve Bannon

Ken Paxton

74

52

47

45

44

37

32

16

16

16

Will OpenAI do large layoffs this year?

Feb 3, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

12303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

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