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Prediction markets for Fire Service

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will Ryan Wesley Routh be convicted for his apparent attempted assassination of Trump?

Sep 16, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.66%chance

389269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11084

3744

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will any SSRIs be DEA-scheduled before Trump leaves office?

Feb 16, 8:47 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

5.39%chance

14680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

24

Will the US conduct any military actions inside of Mexico before the end of 2025?

Nov 27, 4:01 PMJan 8, 4:59 AM

27.23%chance

8411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

There is a self-driving fire truck in service in California before 2031

Jul 15, 5:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.62%chance

5210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

92

Will anyone be prosecuted relating to the Grenfell Tower disaster before 01/01/2027?

Sep 4, 11:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.95%chance

5165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Frozen Embryos be left at an Alabama "baby box" under the Safe Haven Law? (by 5th anniv. of Dobbs)

Feb 22, 3:42 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

15.69%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

63

Will a major streaming service adapt A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge into a television series by 01/01/2032?

Nov 28, 3:18 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

356

OptionProbability

No.

Yes: Netflix

Yes: Amazon Prime Video

Yes: Apple TV+

Yes: Disney+

Yes: HBO Max

Yes: Hulu

Yes: Paramount+

Yes: Peacock

Other

77

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Are manifold market creator ratings subject to reputation inflation?

Sep 28, 1:11 PM

140

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