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Top stories

Judge Sparkle L. Sooknanan Blocks Trump FTC Probe of Media Matters Citing First Amendment; Tesla Faces Class Action, SpaceX Wins NLRB Ruling

Judge Sparkle L. Sooknanan Blocks Trump FTC Probe of Media Matters Citing First Amendment; Tesla Faces Class Action, SpaceX Wins NLRB Ruling

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for First Amendment

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

784395091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6391

3455

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will Texas legalize split-rate property tax (and thus Land Value Tax) within 5 years?

Nov 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.27%chance

191063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

870

First US state to declare independence?

Jun 8, 5:05 PMDec 31, 6:05 PM

6990

OptionProbability

California

Texas

Other

Washington

Wyoming

Florida

Louisiana

Hawaii

Alaska

Rhode Island

32

15

13

8

6

6

6

6

6

2

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Press Freedom: will SCOTUS make it easier for politicians to sue media for defamation?

Aug 13, 5:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6345

OptionProbability

Yes, if a MAGA Republican is elected in 2024

Yes, if a Democrat is elected in 2024

49

37

Will any AI model released before 2028 reach an Epoch general ECI of at least 200?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.07%chance

2300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6278

4810

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

6151

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Never announces national elections

Other

March 15 - April 15, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

48

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

4

Constitutional Amendment initiated during Prabowo's First Term as President of Indonesia

Mar 11, 10:35 AMOct 31, 12:00 AM

63.64%chance

3130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

What will the US labor force participation rate be for December 2027?

Aug 8, 7:10 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

72.95%chance

125

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1021

925

Will a Millennium Prize Problem resolution be published before 2028 and subsequently verified?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40.67%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

979

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