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Top stories

Judge Sparkle L. Sooknanan Blocks Trump FTC Probe of Media Matters Citing First Amendment; Tesla Faces Class Action, SpaceX Wins NLRB Ruling

Judge Sparkle L. Sooknanan Blocks Trump FTC Probe of Media Matters Citing First Amendment; Tesla Faces Class Action, SpaceX Wins NLRB Ruling

Authors

10

7 months ago

Prediction markets for First Amendment

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.67%chance

774387144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6340

3474

When will the first mainstream article cover facts in Sokolowski, et. al. v. Silbert, et. al. Second Amended Complaint?

Jan 5, 3:11 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

910486

OptionProbability

Before 6/30/2026

Before 4/30/2026

Before 5/31/2026

Before 3/31/2026

Before 2/28/2026

Before 3/15/2026

Before 1/7/2026

Before 1/10/2026

Before 1/14/2026

Before 1/20/2026

Before 1/31/2026

Before 2/15/2026

14

10

10

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

US Supreme Court upholds Colorado's conversion therapy ban in Chiles v Salazar?

Oct 7, 6:35 PMJul 31, 6:19 PM

6.8%chance

194718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3703

270

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will Texas legalize split-rate property tax (and thus Land Value Tax) within 5 years?

Nov 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.27%chance

191063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

870

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Press Freedom: will SCOTUS make it easier for politicians to sue media for defamation?

Aug 13, 5:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5335

OptionProbability

Yes, if a MAGA Republican is elected in 2024

Yes, if a Democrat is elected in 2024

50

37

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

101

Will AI become president by 2060

Jan 16, 12:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

5281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

81

Constitutional Amendment initiated during Prabowo's First Term as President of Indonesia

Mar 11, 10:35 AMOct 31, 12:00 AM

63.64%chance

3130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

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