OptionProbability
Before June 2026
Before March 2026
Before January 2026
Before December 2025
Before November 2025
Before October 2025
Before June
Before August
Before October
Before 2025
Before July 2025
Before April 2025
74
67
60
40
16
1
0
R Senate, D House
Democrats Sweep
Republicans Sweep
D Senate, R House
Other
55
28
11
3
2
Market chaos
Vacant House seats at start of term
Bonus underlying chaos
Any member seated who was not the winner
Bonus market chaos
Vacant Senate seats at start of term
Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results
Majority control discrepancy in the Senate
Majority control discrepancy in the House
Congress refuses to accept any certified result
Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)
Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day
Any member-elect changes parties
Any major news organization retracts a call
New election ordered for any seat
Senator not up for re-election changes party
Any member-elect denied the oath of office
Any election delayed
VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break
63
45
37
34
31
27
22
20
10
8
By 2050
By 2045
By 2035
By 2040
By 2030
By 2025
66
50
41
24
OptionVotes
YES
NO
112
89
120
83