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Top stories

New York Appeals Court Erases Trump $500 Million Fraud Fine; James to Appeal

New York Appeals Court Erases Trump $500 Million Fraud Fine; James to Appeal

Authors

12

10 months ago

Prediction markets for First Department

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.31%chance

214959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4224

237

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

53421

OptionProbability

Gallium

Germanium

Neodymium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

11

11

10

9

8

8

8

6

6

6

6

6

5

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.58%chance

281696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

717

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2028?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

12724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

896

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2040?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.21%chance

13500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

955

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2030?

Mar 4, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.01%chance

12475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

871

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

15411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

948

When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM

3175

OptionProbability

No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves

Before 1 July 2026

July to December 2026

During 2027

2028 or later

27

18

18

18

18

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