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Prediction markets for First Digital

Will Maduro die in U.S. custody?

Jan 3, 7:52 PMFeb 28, 7:51 PM

39%chance

7510351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

173

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1188

662

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?

Oct 12, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

18866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

957

Is the quadrillionth digit of Pi a 6?

Mar 7, 3:48 AMJan 13, 8:00 AM

10.02%chance

29376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

996

Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB

Jan 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.64%chance

7316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Which of the Western countries will first implement a social credit system or a similar digital gulag institution?

Sep 1, 2:57 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

7273

OptionProbability

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

Australia

Denmark

Austria

Belgium

Czech Republic

Estonia

France

Greece

Iceland

Italy

Latvia

Luxembourg

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Spain

Sweden

None by 2100

Germany

Switzerland

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

By what year will humanity successfully develop the first 'digital person'?

Nov 22, 10:50 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7155

OptionProbability

2031 or later or never

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

45

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

If Satoshi is alive in 2025, was (s)he at Bitcoin 2024?

Dec 28, 4:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.71%chance

393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

66

Will a fully AI-generated song reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

350

OptionProbability

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2026

Jul-Dec 2027

32

31

18

18

Will ""The first two weeks are the hardest": my fir..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 4:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

16

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

Will the English Premier League still exist in 2150/51 w/ 100 million or more views* per season globally?

Sep 5, 11:12 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

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