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Prediction markets for First Digital

Will Maduro die in U.S. custody?

Jan 3, 7:52 PMFeb 28, 7:51 PM

45.74%chance

7510384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

197

In what year will Patrick Rothfuss' book The Doors of Stone be released?

Aug 24, 7:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

444871

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1188

662

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

954

Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?

Oct 12, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.66%chance

18866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

957

Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB

Jan 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.2%chance

10515

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

890

Is the quadrillionth digit of Pi a 6?

Mar 7, 3:48 AMJan 13, 8:00 AM

10.02%chance

29376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

996

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Which of the Western countries will first implement a social credit system or a similar digital gulag institution?

Sep 1, 2:57 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

7273

OptionProbability

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

Australia

Denmark

Austria

Belgium

Czech Republic

Estonia

France

Greece

Iceland

Italy

Latvia

Luxembourg

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Spain

Sweden

None by 2100

Germany

Switzerland

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

New Bach work discovered before 2030

Mar 3, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.28%chance

6214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

324

206

By what year will humanity successfully develop the first 'digital person'?

Nov 22, 10:50 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7155

OptionProbability

2031 or later or never

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

45

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will my net worth be 6 figures when I graduate middle school?

Dec 28, 6:02 PMJun 1, 6:02 PM

40.71%chance

474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will ""The first two weeks are the hardest": my fir..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 4:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

16

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

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