First Direct News

YES

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Genesis job, what will be my bonus in my first full year? (At a rate of 1 percentage point = $3000. So e.g. if it's $100k this answer resolves to 33%.)

If I accept the Genesis job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

YES

Same-gender romantic relationships are possible (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact relationships)

Miis can have children regardless of gender (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact having children)

Miis can have pets (more detailed implementation than just gifts like in TL)

House location on map can be customized

Will be released before 2027 (AoE)

Base digital game costs US$60 or less

No region-locked food items

Island can be terraformed (predefined expansions don't count, must be able to manually customize land placement or shape)

Updated to support the Switch 2 mouse mode in any capacity before 2027-06-01

Nintendo Switch 2 edition released before 2027 (AoE)

Homes can be customized with individual furniture pieces

Players can visit other players' islands online or via local wireless

Music/song creation mode returns (like the Concert Hall)

Miis can have jobs/careers (more detailed implementation than just seeing them working at various places like in TL)

Gender is removed (e.g. consistently referred to as "style")

Miitopia-like makeup system

Romantic relationships are absent or not distinguished from friendships (one example: like the Miitopia systems)

Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream appears in the first *general* Nintendo DIrect of 2026

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

trump dies

Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more

human steps on moon again

grok 6 release date

tropico 7 releases

fable (2026) releases

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

Saw XI Releases in USA

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

stripe ipo happens

polymarket or kalshi ipo

Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more

biden dies

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

windows 12 announcement is made

Netanyahu out as PM of israel

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory

Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world

putin or zelensky lose power

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card

discord IPO happens

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

haunted chocolatier release date known

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)

playstation 6 announced

new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)

llama 5 release date

yoko ono passes away

apple announces a smart ring

grok 5 release date

noam chomsky passes away

fourth Knives Out movie announced

twitter/x releases x mail to some users

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

playboi carti releases an album

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

Hades 3 announced (game)

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

coup in an african country

manifold raises more money

Third dune movie officially announced

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse

Third dune movie releases

Cy Young award winner announced

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

apple announces a touchscreen laptop

First game of the MLB World Series starts

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

nobel peace prize winner announced

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

commercial airline hijacked

iphone fold release date known

beyonce releases an album

Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

the first Solar eclipse of the year

Patriot Games ending day

Patriot Games starting day

someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

fifa world cup - last game ends

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

Taylor swift gets married

ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda

English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

Kier Starmer out

alan greenspan passes away

Manifest 2026 starts

spacex IPO happens

drake releases an album

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

another trump assassination attempt

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

artemis II mission launches

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

new iphone releases (in the USA)

trump removes a cabinet member

First Apple Event of the year

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

manifold launches real money trading

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)

First Nintendo direct of the year

YES

NO

YES

NO

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10