First Direct News

YES

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Genesis job, what will be my bonus in my first full year? (At a rate of 1 percentage point = $3000. So e.g. if it's $100k this answer resolves to 33%.)

If I accept the Genesis job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

If I accept the Penguin job, will my total earnings from it after 5 years (valuing unsold equity at whatever I think it's "really worth") be at least 1.5 million?

If I accept the Genesis job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

If I accept the Penguin job, will I end up leaving on bad terms?

YES

Same-gender romantic relationships are possible (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact relationships)

Miis can have pets (more detailed implementation than just gifts like in TL)

Will be released before 2027 (AoE)

Base digital game costs US$60 or less

Island can be terraformed (predefined expansions don't count, must be able to manually customize land placement or shape)

House location on map can be customized

Miis can have children regardless of gender (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact having children)

Homes can be customized with individual furniture pieces

Updated to support the Switch 2 mouse mode in any capacity before 2027-06-01

Babies can be nonbinary at birth

Miis can have jobs/careers (more detailed implementation than just seeing them working at various places like in TL)

No region-locked food items

Music/song creation mode returns (like the Concert Hall)

Nintendo Switch 2 edition released before 2027 (AoE)

Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream appears in the first *general* Nintendo DIrect of 2026

Players can visit other players' islands online or via local wireless

Miitopia-like makeup system

Gender is removed (e.g. consistently referred to as "style")

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

YES

human steps on moon again

trump dies

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

grok 6 release date

Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more

Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card

Netanyahu out as PM of israel

windows 12 announcement is made

Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase

trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory

playstation 6 announced

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

putin or zelensky lose power

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

Saw XI Releases in USA

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

polymarket or kalshi ipo

haunted chocolatier release date known

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

alan greenspan passes away

yoko ono passes away

stripe ipo happens

apple announces a touchscreen laptop

noam chomsky passes away

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more

commercial airline hijacked

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

spacex IPO happens

Kier Starmer out

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)

manifold raises more money

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

twitter/x releases x mail to some users

iphone fold release date known

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

Cy Young award winner announced

marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA

ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

another trump assassination attempt

nobel peace prize winner announced

discord IPO happens

Patriot Games ending day

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

tropico 7 releases

fable (2026) releases

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

apple announces a smart ring

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

First game of the MLB World Series starts

Third dune movie officially announced

fourth Knives Out movie announced

beyonce releases an album

drake releases an album

playboi carti releases an album

Patriot Games starting day

English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more

Hades 3 announced (game)

the first Solar eclipse of the year

coup in an african country

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

fifa world cup - last game ends

Taylor swift gets married

Manifest 2026 starts

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

grok 5 release date

llama 5 release date

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

artemis II mission launches

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

new iphone releases (in the USA)

trump removes a cabinet member

First Apple Event of the year

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

manifold launches real money trading

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)

First Nintendo direct of the year

NO

YES

NO

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10