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Prediction markets for First Investors

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

57.06%chance

2235957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11340

8865

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.75%chance

628312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3232

2542

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.24%chance

286307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2455

408

What % of assets will FTX international clients get back?

Jul 4, 4:50 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

97.92%chance

112441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2323

820

By 2030 will the most-used cryptocurrency have none of the highly criticised flaws of those popular in 2024?

Feb 3, 6:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.46%chance

281611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

8721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

890

Will QS Announce a Large Form Factor Cell in 2026

Dec 21, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.41%chance

12580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

326

31

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

10252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

17

Will Slate Auto ship vehicles to customers in 2026?

Jan 10, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

438

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

34

32

11

11

11

Which month will CONTROL: Resonant release in?

Mar 15, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

216

OptionProbability

June

May

April

July

Other

August

27

18

14

14

14

12

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