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Prediction markets for First Mark

Will the first AGI be created by an LK-99 Main-Market YES holder?

Jan 25, 5:45 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

1%chance

193514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

47

What year will mark the first true AGI?

Mar 11, 8:46 PMMar 12, 5:59 AM

11.17%chance

233462

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2044

720

San Mateo Restaurant Death Market - which 5 of these die first? 100% = die

Nov 18, 1:18 AMNov 25, 7:59 AM

153184

OptionProbability

3 Bees Coffee

Curry Up Now

Pokeatery

B Street Books

Daeho kalbijjim

McGovern's

Philz Coffee

Sushi Yoshimizu

Saigon City

Takahashi Market

New York Pizza

Izakaya Mai

Mortar & Pestle Bar

O'Neills Irish Pub

Pacific Catch

Gyu-Kaku

Tomatina

Himawari

Pausa

Pancho Villa

47

36

36

36

34

34

29

29

29

29

28

28

27

25

25

23

23

17

16

11

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Nov 23, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.63%chance

443076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1670

553

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

74.72%chance

151219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

605

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

26.33%chance

211008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

740

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

42.45%chance

16867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

989

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

24.19%chance

19625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

875

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?

Mar 25, 3:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13517

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2028 or 2029

2026 or 2027

2024 or 2025

43

30

25

2

Which Advance Market Commitment (AMC) will get funded first?

Sep 28, 1:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5455

OptionProbability

Broad-spectrum antivirals

Diagnostics for neonatal sepsis

Repurposing generic drugs

39

38

22

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

30%chance

10389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

982

[Marked for Death] Will the Gōketsu necromancy project succeed first?

Jan 21, 8:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.19%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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