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Prediction markets for First Mark

Will the first AGI be created by an LK-99 Main-Market YES holder?

Jan 25, 5:45 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

1%chance

193514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

47

What year will mark the first true AGI?

Mar 11, 8:46 PMMar 12, 5:59 AM

11.17%chance

233462

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2044

720

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Nov 23, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.41%chance

453201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1816

518

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

74.72%chance

151219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

605

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

26.33%chance

211008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

740

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM

40.39%chance

16917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

954

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

23.31%chance

21677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

861

Which Advance Market Commitment (AMC) will get funded first?

Sep 28, 1:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5455

OptionProbability

Broad-spectrum antivirals

Diagnostics for neonatal sepsis

Repurposing generic drugs

39

38

22

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

28.57%chance

10439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

961

Who will host Saturday Night Live [SNL] for the first time in the 2020s? [Mega Market]

Apr 12, 4:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6396

OptionProbability

Nikki Glaser

Simone Biles

Glenn Powell

Keanu Reeves

Florence Pugh

Ali Wong

Steven Yeun

Zendaya

Rachel McAdams

Finn Wolfhard

Tom Holland

Christian Bale

Noah Centineo

Jacob Tremblay

Zazie Beetz

Hailee Steinfeld

Olivia Cooke

Kiernan Shipka

Joaquin Phoenix

Tom Cruise

Brad Pitt

Leonardo DiCaprio

Millie Bobby Brown

Chloe Grace Moretz

Daisy Ridley

76

76

76

63

57

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

[Marked for Death] Will the Gōketsu necromancy project succeed first?

Jan 21, 8:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.19%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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