First Mark News

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Nov 23, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

99%chance

4810843

OptionVotes

YES

9369

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Apr 29, 12:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

235024

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2026

2024

2025

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Apr 24, 3:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73882

OptionProbability

Chicago Bears win their division before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears finish regular season with a winning record before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears fire head coach before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears have a player who gets league MVP before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears win league championship before the Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bears are sold by the majority owner (or ownership group) before the Chicago Bulls

100

Will the first AGI be created by an LK-99 Main-Market YES holder?

Jan 25, 5:45 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

1%chance

193514

OptionVotes

YES

2117

What year will mark the first true AGI?

Mar 11, 8:46 PMMar 12, 5:59 AM

11.17%chance

233462

OptionProbability

YES

2044

720

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

162098

OptionVotes

YES

1153

856

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

33%chance

221114

OptionVotes

YES

1228

846

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM

45%chance

17997

OptionVotes

YES

1034

942

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

31%chance

22792

OptionVotes

YES

1031

977

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

36%chance

11546

OptionVotes

YES

1068

851

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

257

[Marked for Death] Will the Gōketsu necromancy project succeed first?

Jan 21, 8:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.19%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

First Mark News

Prediction markets for First Mark

Prediction markets for First Mark

Prediction markets for First Mark

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Bulls vs Bears Market - Which Chicago professional sports teams (NFL, NBA) will accomplish different feats first?

Will the first AGI be created by an LK-99 Main-Market YES holder?

What year will mark the first true AGI?

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

[Marked for Death] Will the Gōketsu necromancy project succeed first?

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