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First Mark News

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Apr 29, 12:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

259066

OptionProbability

Other

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

61

30

5

3

0

0

What year will mark the first true AGI?

Mar 11, 8:46 PMMar 12, 5:59 AM

11.17%chance

233462

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2044

720

San Mateo Restaurant Death Market - which 5 of these die first? 100% = die

Nov 18, 1:18 AMNov 25, 7:59 AM

173309

OptionProbability

B Street Books

3 Bees Coffee

Curry Up Now

Pokeatery

Daeho kalbijjim

McGovern's

Philz Coffee

Sushi Yoshimizu

Saigon City

Takahashi Market

New York Pizza

Izakaya Mai

Mortar & Pestle Bar

O'Neills Irish Pub

Pacific Catch

Gyu-Kaku

Tomatina

Himawari

Pausa

Pancho Villa

86

47

36

36

34

34

29

29

29

29

28

28

27

25

25

23

23

17

16

11

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

162098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

856

Who will host Saturday Night Live [SNL] for the first time in the 2020s? [Mega Market]

Apr 12, 4:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91205

OptionProbability

Finn Wolfhard

Nikki Glaser

Glenn Powell

Florence Pugh

Ali Wong

Steven Yeun

Zendaya

Rachel McAdams

Tom Holland

Noah Centineo

Jacob Tremblay

Zazie Beetz

Hailee Steinfeld

Olivia Cooke

Kiernan Shipka

Sebastian Maniscalco

Joaquin Phoenix

Tom Cruise

Brad Pitt

Leonardo DiCaprio

Millie Bobby Brown

Chloe Grace Moretz

Daisy Ridley

Keanu Reeves

Simone Biles

Christian Bale

100

100

100

57

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

39

29

24

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

33%chance

221114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

846

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMFeb 3, 12:59 AM

45%chance

17997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

942

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:54 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

31%chance

22792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

977

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Aug 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

17769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

580

17

Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:55 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

36%chance

11546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

851

The Million Views Challenge: Will the first market to reach 1 Million views receive an reward for it?

Feb 28, 6:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.56%chance

6142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

107

[Marked for Death] Will the Gōketsu necromancy project succeed first?

Jan 21, 8:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

54.19%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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