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Prediction markets for First Nations

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

153309

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

75

75

62

56

0

0

When will the first AGI company get nationalized?

Jun 11, 4:34 PMJun 19, 6:59 AM

232970

OptionProbability

2046-∞ or never

2025-2030

2031-2035

2036-2040

2041-2045

EOY 2024

47

34

10

4

3

1

Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?

Jan 29, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.5%chance

8797

OptionVotes

NO

YES

693

135

Which will be the first country to nationalize an Amazon Web Services data center?

Apr 9, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18701

OptionProbability

None by 2030

Other

China (PRC)

Argentina

Bahrain

Poland

69

20

8

1

1

1

What will be the nationality of the first European to walk on the Moon?

Dec 11, 1:38 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

17546

OptionProbability

French

German

Italian

British

Other

Russian

33

18

14

14

12

9

By what year will the first AI lab be nationalized in the US?

Dec 23, 4:30 PMJan 11, 7:59 AM

9412

OptionProbability

2035

2030

2034

2028

2033

2029

2027

2031

2032

Later or never

2026

2025

66

65

63

62

59

58

52

50

50

39

33

1

Which will come first, criminal liability for AIs, or voting rights in national elections for AIs?

Apr 8, 11:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9355

OptionProbability

Criminal liability first

Voting rights first

Both at the same time

66

21

13

Will the first manned mission to mars have a Chinese national on board?

Dec 12, 2:32 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

23.69%chance

7203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

96

In what year will the first nationalization of a western bloc AI lab occur?

Sep 1, 2:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7194

OptionProbability

not before 2035

2031

2027

2030

2026

2029

2025

2028

2032

2033

2034

2024

29

19

12

9

7

7

6

6

2

2

2

1

When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM

2125

OptionProbability

No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves

Before 1 July 2026

July to December 2026

During 2027

2028 or later

28

18

18

18

18

Will a First Nations reservation in Canada enact a "right to try" law by 2028?

Jul 28, 9:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will any clinical trials of any drug be done in a First Nations reservation in Canada by 2028?

Jul 28, 9:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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