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First Republic News

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.73%chance

9531769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4074

648

Next country to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender:

Oct 29, 4:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

605268

OptionProbability

Kenya

Nigeria

Other

Suriname

Portugal

USA

Kazakhstan

Argentina

Philippines

Bhutan

Mexico

Uruguay

Ukraine

Brazil

St. Kitts and Nevis

Fiji

Tonga

Panama

Honduras

Costa Rica

Switzerland

Georgia 🇬🇪

Qatar

Ecuador

Bahamas

UAE

USA (double, plz sell)

USA (double, plz sell)

19

15

15

11

8

8

8

7

6

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

The first female US president will be Republican

Nov 5, 12:50 AMNov 1, 10:59 PM

45.99%chance

553802

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

755

🇺🇸 Will the first woman to become President of the United States be a Republican or a Democrat?

Mar 25, 4:38 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

392308

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

neither

53

46

1

Will the United Kingdom attempt to rejoin the EU and Greece demand the Elgin Marbles back to let them? [2033]

Jul 7, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.15%chance

241220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

830

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will the first woman president of the United States be a Republican?

Nov 17, 6:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

19559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

How many UN members will recognize Somaliland at the end of 2026?

Dec 30, 1:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8472

OptionProbability

0–1

2

3

4 +

57

30

7

6

Who will be the next president of Czech Republic after first term of Petr Pavel?

Nov 18, 11:13 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

5355

OptionProbability

Petr Pavel

Other

Andrej Babiš

55

24

21

Who will be in the first 2028 Republican Party presidential debate?

Nov 10, 10:29 AMNov 4, 2:59 PM

4275

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson

Mike Pence

Mitt Romney

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

75

50

50

8

8

5

5

Will the next non Republican president remove Trump's name from the Kennedy Center in their first year?

Dec 19, 7:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.62%chance

12179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

226

44

When will be the first time a Republican presidential candidate wins D.C.?

Jan 8, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

398

OptionProbability

2060's

2080's

Not in the 21st century

2040's

2050's

2070's

2090's

before 2040

15

15

15

13

11

11

11

10

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