First Round News

Dems win Florida and/or Texas Governor

Any Republican held senate seat is called by the associated press within 2 minutes of polls closing in the state

Democrats win Georgia and Nevada Governor election

Abdul el Sayed wins by 1.5% or more

Associated Press or NBC make house control projection before 11.01pm Tues Nov 3

This market has 100+ total traders by 11.59pm tues Nov 3 eastern time.

Maine senate election is called before Alaska senate (associated press)

James Talarico declared winner by associated press before 9am Wednesday by associated press?

Democrats win Kansas and Iowa senate

Democrats win Kansas and Texas governor

Democrats win Texas Governor

Susan Collins AND Mike Lawler Lose?

Democrats win 52 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)

Democrats win 53 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)

Any senate race NOT yet called by the associated press 2 days after polls closed?

Democrats win 55 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)

Ca Wealth tax (prop 40) fails by 5% or more

Abdul El Sayed and James Talarico both win by 2.5% or more

Mary Peltola AND James Talarico win

Any US house race has a margin of victory of 1000 votes or less

Any US house race has a margin of victory of 500 votes or less

Scott colom wins by 2000 votes or more

Mississippi is closest senate race (by margin of victory)

Democrats win 56 senate seats or more (ap projections)

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 20

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 17

Scott colom wins by 3500 votes or more

Mississippi senate is called before Alaska senate? (Associated press)

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 14

Any senate election has margin of victory of 0.5% or less

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 10

Scott colom wins by 5000 votes or more

Abdul el Sayed wins by 7.5% or more

Mississippi senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Nov 8

Mary Peltola gets 50% or more in first round of Alaska senate

Scott colom wins by 7500 votes or more

A Tweet from @ AbdulElSayed gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours.

A tweet from @ Jamestalarico gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours

Any senate candidate wins with 47% or less of the vote

Scott colom wins by 10000 votes or more

Any Republican senate candidate says the election was stolen, cheated, or fraud stopped them from winning, before Nov 6 11.59pm ET

Trump falsely declares victory/says his candidate won in a race they did not (before 11.59pm et Nov 6)

Mary Peltola wins by more than Troy Jackson (resolves on final round results)

Abdul El Sayed wins by 8% or more

Abdul el Sayed mentions Haley stevens by name in election night speech (or first speech next day if none)

BOTH Maine and Alaska senate not called by 11.59pm Eastern Wed Nov 4

Mike rogers claims the Michigan election was stolen/rigged/cheated/inconsistent before 11.59pm Thursday Nov 5

Abdul El Sayed wins by more than Peggy Flanagan does in Minnesota?

Adam Hamilton (Kansas) wins by more than Abdul el sayed

Alaska senate called by associated press by 11.59pm eastern Wed Nov 4

Donald trump POSTS 10 times on truth social on Wednesday Nov 4, eastern time. Posts only, retruths don’t count.

La Mayor election called by Ap or NBC by 11.59pm pacific time Nov 4?

NO

Yes, but he will not be re-elected.

Yes, and he will be re-elected.

Mary Peltola

Dan Sullivan (Incumbent)

NO

Miss the playoffs entirely

Eliminated in the second round

Eliminated in the first round

Eliminated in the Eastern Conference Fin

Reach the Stanley Cup Final but lose

YES

YES

NO

11

Less than 8

8

9

10

12

13

14

Below 78%

78% to below 82%

82% to below 88%

0

1

2

3

4

5