First Trust News

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

24770242

OptionVotes

YES

2057

702

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.21%chance

2710374

OptionVotes

YES

6659

150

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.32%chance

315311

OptionVotes

YES

1113

899

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

69.56%chance

393689

OptionVotes

YES

1490

674

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

53421

OptionProbability

Gallium

Germanium

Neodymium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?

May 29, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.57%chance

221211

OptionVotes

YES

1153

833

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.84%chance

5245

OptionVotes

YES

1148

871

Commercial civilian autonomous flights by EOY 2040?

Jan 18, 10:04 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.38%chance

12197

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?

Apr 27, 3:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

5132

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will any NFL team start the 2026 regular season 7-0?

Jun 13, 9:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

66.22%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

140

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

988

First Trust News

Prediction markets for First Trust

Prediction markets for First Trust

Prediction markets for First Trust

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Commercial civilian autonomous flights by EOY 2040?

Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026?

Will any NFL team start the 2026 regular season 7-0?

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

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