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Prediction markets for First Trust

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

6.36%chance

24163585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3714

530

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

0.99%chance

2610324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9983

100

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

66.56%chance

383588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

722

Which will be the next three airlines to operate a supersonic airliner?

Dec 9, 2:03 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

121323

OptionProbability

United Airlines

Japan Airlines

SpaceX Airlines

Alaska Airlines

British Airways

Air France

Hawaiian Airlines

All Nippon Airways

Air China

China Eastern Airlines

Cathay Pacific

Singapore Airlines

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines

China Southern Airlines

American Airlines

Delta Air Lines

52

36

33

29

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

18

16

Will we have proof that we live in a simulation in the next three years? (before 2028)

Feb 21, 10:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.59%chance

231299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

959

Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?

May 29, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.57%chance

221211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

833

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

53

32

15

Commercial civilian autonomous flights by EOY 2040?

Jan 18, 10:04 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.38%chance

12197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

When GPT-5.3-Codex on API

Feb 7, 3:31 AMApr 3, 3:59 AM

1100

OptionProbability

Feb 7-14, 2025

Feb 15-21, 2025

Feb 22-28, 2025

Mar 1-7, 2025

Mar 29+/Never

Mar 8-14, 2025

Mar 15-21, 2025

Mar 22-28, 2025

16

15

15

15

14

10

8

8

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Feb 3, 4:26 AM

820

I'll fund creation of markets (questions) for users with under M$2000 net worth!

Aug 3, 4:32 PMAug 4, 6:59 AM

00

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