First Trust News

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

24568669

OptionVotes

YES

2875

598

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543871

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.21%chance

2710374

OptionVotes

YES

6659

150

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

224093

OptionVotes

YES

1005

995

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

383688

OptionVotes

YES

1489

675

Will we have proof that we live in a simulation in the next three years? (before 2028)

Feb 21, 10:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.48%chance

241349

OptionVotes

YES

1189

958

Which will be the next three airlines to operate a supersonic airliner?

Dec 9, 2:03 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

121323

OptionProbability

United Airlines

Japan Airlines

SpaceX Airlines

Alaska Airlines

British Airways

Air France

Hawaiian Airlines

All Nippon Airways

Air China

China Eastern Airlines

Cathay Pacific

Singapore Airlines

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines

China Southern Airlines

American Airlines

Delta Air Lines

Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?

May 29, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.57%chance

221211

OptionVotes

YES

1153

833

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Jan 29, 5:29 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9277

OptionProbability

After 2032

Between 2028 and 2032

Before 2028

Commercial civilian autonomous flights by EOY 2040?

Jan 18, 10:04 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.38%chance

12197

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

YES

1098

911

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Feb 3, 4:26 AM

870

First Trust News

Prediction markets for First Trust

Prediction markets for First Trust

Prediction markets for First Trust

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Will we have proof that we live in a simulation in the next three years? (before 2028)

Which will be the next three airlines to operate a supersonic airliner?

Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Commercial civilian autonomous flights by EOY 2040?

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

How bad is it to resolve a market as N/A?

Latest stories