First Trust News

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

1718

765

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

Jul 31, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4317261

OptionVotes

YES

3694

560

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.62%chance

335596

OptionVotes

YES

1267

789

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

84871

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Jan 26, 7:04 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

69.31%chance

403812

OptionVotes

YES

1482

678

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

18.95%chance

132346

OptionVotes

YES

2068

484

Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?

May 29, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.57%chance

221211

OptionVotes

YES

1153

833

NFL Week 3: Will the total combined score of the Ravens vs. Cowboys game be OVER 52.5 points?

Sep 22, 2:05 PMSep 27, 8:22 PM

48.98%chance

11641

OptionVotes

YES

1021

980

EPL: On January 11, 2027, will Erling Haaland be the outright leading goalscorer in the Premier League?

Jul 11, 10:03 PMJan 11, 11:59 PM

45.91%chance

10531

OptionVotes

YES

1029

974

Will JerryRigEveryting be able to bend the iPhone Duo in half with his bare hands?

Sep 20, 5:31 AMOct 31, 10:59 PM

61.5%chance

7441

OptionVotes

YES

1264

791

Before 2035, will evidence indicate BPC-157’s side effects make it not-recommended for musculoskeletal injury recovery?

Jun 28, 6:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.04%chance

496

OptionVotes

YES

1040

961

First Trust News

Prediction markets for First Trust

Prediction markets for First Trust

Prediction markets for First Trust

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?

NFL Week 3: Will the total combined score of the Ravens vs. Cowboys game be OVER 52.5 points?

EPL: On January 11, 2027, will Erling Haaland be the outright leading goalscorer in the Premier League?

Will JerryRigEveryting be able to bend the iPhone Duo in half with his bare hands?

Before 2035, will evidence indicate BPC-157’s side effects make it not-recommended for musculoskeletal injury recovery?

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