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Prediction markets for FIS

$Fishbuck

May 9, 7:30 AMMay 10, 4:59 AM

739792

OptionProbability

NO

YES

157

96

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.33%chance

3421610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16274

7680

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.99%chance

211304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

9048

Are fish conscious?

Feb 9, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.7%chance

251105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

899

Will bees still be a type of fish at the beginning of 2030?

Dec 21, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.89%chance

34981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

880

Will there be a fistfight or other similar physical altercation in US Congress (house or senate) before 2030?

Sep 26, 5:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.55%chance

16772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

809

Before 2034, will OpenAI, Anthropic or Mistral have a profitable fiscal year?

Aug 6, 12:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.42%chance

9635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1620

617

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.2%chance

15304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

951

¿Bajará el déficit fiscal argentino 15% del PIB (2023)durante el gobierno de Javier Milei?

Nov 29, 9:07 PMDec 10, 6:59 AM

96.15%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

288

48

Will Jose Luis Ricon eat a meal of fried chicken w/Matt Fisher, joshcain.net, Jeremy Nixon, or Vishai Maini by EOY2027?

Apr 29, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.56%chance

386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2028?

Dec 29, 11:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.23%chance

448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

73

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