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Prediction markets for FIS

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.4%chance

272482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10923

9155

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Are fish conscious?

Feb 9, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.12%chance

261205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

862

Will bees still be a type of fish at the beginning of 2030?

Dec 21, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.23%chance

341006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

914

Will there be a fistfight or other similar physical altercation in US Congress (house or senate) before 2030?

Sep 26, 5:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.03%chance

17805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Before 2034, will OpenAI, Anthropic or Mistral have a profitable fiscal year?

Aug 6, 12:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.2%chance

10685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1499

667

Did Robert Fisher survive past April 2001?

Mar 9, 3:42 AMJul 10, 4:38 AM

26.54%chance

3506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

827

101

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.2%chance

15304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

951

How many copies (in millions) will the Nintendo Switch sell by the end of fiscal year 2027?

May 26, 10:59 PMMay 19, 6:59 AM

40.43%chance

6212

OptionProbability

NO

YES

348

139

Will James Fishback get more than 9% of the vote in the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial GOP Primary?

Feb 10, 2:57 AMAug 25, 11:59 PM

56.06%chance

6168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

341

264

Will it be common knowledge that farmed fish, eggs and chicken produce more suffering than other animal products? (2050)

Apr 13, 2:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.54%chance

7127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

110

Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2028?

Dec 29, 11:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.11%chance

5108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

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