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Prediction markets for Fitness

Myron (Fit) Stock

Nov 12, 1:57 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

30546042

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2566

1370

Walter (Fresh from Fresh&Fit) Stock [Permanent]

Jan 9, 9:34 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

12849

OptionProbability

NO

YES

276

184

Will "Risk from fitness-seeking AIs: mechanisms and..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 22, 8:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.71%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

958

In what year will Manifold discover product-market fit?

Jan 9, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.62%chance

590

OptionProbability

NO

YES

352

47

Will there be another game published by Nintendo that uses the Ring Fit Adventure's ring?

Aug 14, 4:41 AMAug 15, 5:59 AM

43%chance

564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

87

Will "Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 10:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will AI/GPT autogenerate concrete examples of infradistributions or inframeasures that fit Vanessa Kosoy defs?

Mar 27, 2:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.81%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

Will the Brooklyn Tower Life Time Fitness offer a dedicated pickleball court before 2027?

Jun 18, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Nintendo announce a spiritual successor to Ring Fit Adventure for Switch 2 in 2026?

Dec 11, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Recommend me interesting job leads that fit my skillset and experience M5000 bounty, paying at least M500 per good lead

Dec 7, 7:40 PM

00

Which broad category does your primary means of making a living most closely fit into?

Jan 23, 12:10 PM

160

What will my next low-key physical fitness hobby be?

Sep 11, 2:51 PM

00

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