Five Below News

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

YES

Max Tegmark

Emmett Shear

Bruce Schneier

George Church

Scott Aaronson

Daniel Kokotajlo

Ben Bernanke

Stephen Fry

Tim Urban

Grimes

Scott Alexander

A former Fed Chair

Neel Nanda

A professor of a Chinese university

Stuart Russell

Toby Ord

Yoshua Bengio

Geoffrey Hinton

Carl Feynman

Vitalik Buterin

Nick Bostrom

Yuval Noah Harari

Dwarkesh Patel

Kevin Roose

Geoffrey Irving

Billy Perrigo

Manifold

Gwern

Helen Toner

Ezra Klein

Patrick McKenzie

Publishers Weekly

Vox

Christine Peterson

Keach Hagey

Bill Gates

Evan Hubinger

Joe Rogan

Kurzgesagt

San Francisco Chronicle

Booklist

NPR

Politico

Lex Fridman

The Economist

Matthew Yglesias

David Chalmers

Peter Singer

A former US Secretary of Treasury

A former US Secretary of State

BBC

Time

Any five current members of the UK Parliament

A former US Secretary of Energy

A former US Secretary of Commerce

Tucker Carlson

WIRED

Eric Schmidt

Gillian Hadfield

Karen Hao

A review in The Atlantic

Telegraph

The New York Times Book Review

Peter Norvig

At least five Nobel laureates

Rolling Stone

The New Yorker

A Science editorial

The Guardian

Ray Kurzweil

John Schulman

A current pope

Financial Times

Bloomberg Businessweek

Forbes

A New Scientist editorial

A current US Secretary of Treasury

John Oliver

IEEE Spectrum

Vanity Fair

roon

Elon Musk

Mustafa Suleyman

A current UK prime minister

Judea Pearl

António Guterres

Foreign Affairs

Barack Obama

A Scientific American editorial

A Nature editorial

The Washington Post

Demis Hassabis

Associated Press

Any five current United States representatives

The Wall Street Journal

Anthropic

Shane Legg

Ilya Sutskever

JD Vance

Alexandr Wang

Daron Acemoglu

A high-ranking Chinese government official

Reuters

RFK Jr

Ivanka Trump

Narendra Modi

Dario Amodei

Benjamin Netanyahu

Terence Tao

CNN

Any five current United States senators

Peter Thiel

Jimmy Fallon

Mira Murati

Richard Sutton

A current Fed Chair

Ursula von der Leyen

OpenAI

DeepMind

Daniela Amodei

Jensen Huang

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Joe Biden

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Satya Nadella

Greg Egan

A current US Secretary of Energy

Bill Clinton

JK Rowling

Noam Chomsky

Fox News

Chris Olah

A current US Secretary of Commerce

A current US Secretary of State

Donald J. Trump

Mr. Beast

Vladimir Putin

Tim Cook

Kamala Harris

King Charles

Xi Jinping

Taylor Swift

[With five or more methods]

With their bare hands

With a weapon that the victim brought to the fight.

With a gadget or other ingenious device from Q

Other

With a hand gun

In the dark

With a long arm (a firearm larger than a pistol).

With a Walther PP or PPK handgun

By causing a structural collapse under them.

Slap

Drowning them

By pushing them off something high up

Sideswiping them with a car

Choking them

Silently, but deadly

With a named MMA submission (e.g., rear-naked choke, arm bar, kimura lock, etc.)

With a knife

Dropping something heavy on them

With electricity

By driving over them in a car

Biting

With a Kalashnikov Rifle (e.g. AK47)

Flambé /Fire

hurts someone's feelings (character in question must state this)

With a timed explosive device

By opening a hatch/airlock

With poison

Drone strike

With his cock (like a fighting Rooster; get yer minds outta that gutter)

Electrocution / With electricity

With a power tool normally used for construction

Lures them into a booby-trapped room

By calling in artillery or missile strike

Arranging for them to be attacked by an animal

With a piece of sporting equipment

Sonic weapon

With a chain

Flying/jump/drop kick

With a grenade

With a flamethrower

Punch to the groin

With a lazer based weapon

With a missle

Friendly fire (Bond unintentionally injures an ally)

With nanobots

Ejector seat

Big stick

With a sling shot

Crashing a plane into them

With a harpoon gun

With a crossbow

By pushing them into a spinning blade

By shaking them, not stirring them

By riding over them with a motorcycle

Killing them with kindness

Non-knife kitchen utensil

By running into them with a submarine

Rape

With microwaves

With a motherfucking snake on a motherfucking plane

Causing them to crash into a wall by painting a tunnel onto it

Expansion of self-declared environmental licensing (e.g., PL 2159/21)

Regulation of the Tax Reform approved in 2023 (rules for the new IVA)

Amnesty for electoral fines for non-compliance with racial and gender quotas (e.g., PEC 9/23)

Time limit for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands (e.g., PEC 48/23 - "Marco Temporal das Terras Indígenas")

Legalization of gambling (e.g., PL 2234/22)

Constitutional prohibition of carrying any quantity of illicit drugs (e.g., PEC 45/23)

Some reform of military pensions

Mineral exploration in Conservation Units (e.g., PL 5822/19)

New law to regulate health plans (e.g., PL 7419/06)

Change of attribution for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands to Congress (e.g., PEC 59/23)

Reduction of the legal reserve proportion in the Amazon (e.g., PL 3334/23)

Prohibition of the reinstatement of Armed Forces members who leave the position to run in elections (e.g., PEC 42/23)

Attribution for states to legislate on the carrying and possession of firearms (e.g., PLP 108/23)

Change in percentages or rules for calculating the constitutional floor for health and/or education expenses

Return of the five-year bonus payment for the Public Ministry and public defenders (e.g., PEC 10/23)

Increase in the duration of paternity leave for all cases that currently have this right (e.g., PL 6216/23)

Criminalization of a legal hypothesis for abortion that is currently considered legal (e.g., PL 1904/24 - "PL do Estuprador")

Prohibition of plea bargains during preventive detention (e.g., PL 4372/16)

Creation of fixed-term mandates for Supreme Court justices (e.g., PEC 16/19)

Some increase in the responsibilities of digital platforms for false content ("PL das Fake News")

Obligation for digital platforms to pay for the distribution of journalistic content

End of re-election for executive authorities (e.g., PEC 15/07)

End of the Union's exclusive ownership of marine land (e.g., PEC 3/22 - "PEC das Praias")

Amnesty for those prosecuted for participating in the events of January 8, 2023 (e.g., PL 5064/23)

End of salary bonus ("Fim do abono salarial")

Impeachment of Lula

Three

Four

Two

Zero

One

Five

Five

Six

Seven

Four

Eight

Nine

Other

Two or three

Demon Slayer (2016)

Fortnite (2017)

Genshin Impact (2020)

Frozen (Disney) (2013)

Hazbin Hotel

DC Extended Universe (2013)

Paw Patrol (2013)

Five Nights at Freddys

Yo-kai Watch (2013)

Palworld (2024)

Candy Crush (2012)

Unemployment will increase

Dollar will decrease

S&P 500 will decline

CPI will increase

10 year note yield will increase

Among Us

One Piece

Simpsons

Shovel Knight

Roblox

Five Nights at Freddys

Frozen (Disney)

Raid Shadow Legends

Hunger Games

Minecraft

Pokemon

Yu Gi Oh

From Software (elden ring, dark souls, etc)

Undertale

Team Fortress / Half Life (Valve properties)

Magic: the Gathering

Doctor Who

Palworld

American Dad

Nintendo (non-pokemon)

Dora the Explorer

Life is Strange

ASDFMovie

Among Us

League of Legends

Shovel Knight

Five Nights at Freddy's

I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

Will we have 20+ this year?

Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

Will we meet in the library at least once?

Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?