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Prediction markets for FLI

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.64%chance

6312417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

882

Will the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 1:03 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.43%chance

195513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2538

394

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

31.35%chance

413836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

729

Will a supersonic plane fly commercial passengers by 2030?

Jun 5, 3:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.78%chance

292072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

922

Will 0.1% of the US population have traveled in a flying car by 2050?

Apr 16, 3:00 AMJan 1, 1:15 PM

46.35%chance

171548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

872

Will Tesla announce they are working on a flying car by 2030?

Mar 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.1%chance

221295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

Will Starship Ship 42 be the first to fly to orbit and be caught by the tower?

May 23, 3:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.11%chance

71191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

818

Will it be substantially more expensive to fly in the USA, in 2028?

Aug 22, 12:47 PMAug 2, 6:59 AM

23.04%chance

261111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

881

Will Boeing have a Flying Car in use on at least one commercial route by the end of 2030?

Apr 18, 8:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.88%chance

15950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

826

Will Boeing have a Flying Car in use on at least one commercial route by the end of 2033?

Apr 18, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

15590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

945

Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?

Jun 5, 12:15 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

34.58%chance

12540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1375

727

Will you be able to pay to recreationally fly around in the gases of Jupiter before 2100?

Sep 7, 11:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.2%chance

17428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

932

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