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Prediction markets for FLI

Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

3.08%chance

1925627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5609

178

Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Jan 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.34%chance

5718210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1470

681

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.15%chance

6212367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

903

Will the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?

Jan 20, 1:03 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.83%chance

184737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

559

Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?

Jan 12, 5:47 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

38.48%chance

373458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

845

Will a supersonic plane fly commercial passengers by 2030?

Jun 5, 3:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.78%chance

292072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

922

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.98%chance

121950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

734

Will 0.1% of the US population have traveled in a flying car by 2050?

Apr 16, 3:00 AMJan 1, 1:15 PM

46.35%chance

171548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

872

Will Tesla announce they are working on a flying car by 2030?

Mar 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.16%chance

211195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

720

Will Elon officially announce a flying car by the end of 2026?

Nov 26, 8:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.05%chance

31941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

880

Will Boeing have a Flying Car in use on at least one commercial route by the end of 2030?

Apr 18, 8:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.52%chance

14805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

867

Will you be able to pay to recreationally fly around in the gases of Jupiter before 2100?

Sep 7, 11:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.2%chance

17428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

932

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