Flight Support News

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

3915129

OptionProbability

Grok 4.6 is released by August 31, 2026

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

100

Will SLS launch in 2027?

Feb 28, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.12%chance

171885

OptionVotes

YES

220

How many flights to orbit will Falcon 9 have made by the time it retires?

Mar 19, 2:02 PMMar 19, 11:59 PM

11972

OptionProbability

Fewer than 1300

Fewer than 1100

Fewer than 900

Fewer than 700

Fewer than 500

Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21)

Apr 21, 4:07 PMOct 21, 4:06 PM

3.08%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

561

Will the gold price drop below $3.5k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

20797

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?

Jan 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

3592

OptionVotes

YES

626

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.32%chance

13558

OptionVotes

YES

312

Will a commercial non-stop passenger flight operate from a UK airport to Syria before January 1, 2027?

Jul 29, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.18%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

199

Will John Green live to see AFC Wimbledon make it to the Premier League?

Apr 8, 8:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.35%chance

566

OptionVotes

YES

182

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Elon Musk (props)

Will SLS launch in 2027?

How many flights to orbit will Falcon 9 have made by the time it retires?

Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21)

Will the gold price drop below $3.5k/ounce in 2026?

Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Will a commercial non-stop passenger flight operate from a UK airport to Syria before January 1, 2027?

Will John Green live to see AFC Wimbledon make it to the Premier League?

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