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Which of these disasters will strike the world next?

Jul 6, 9:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

965909

OptionProbability

Pandemic

Climate

AI

Nuclear

63

21

13

3

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner

Jan 3, 6:15 PMMar 17, 11:00 AM

211222

OptionProbability

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)

Joaquin Phoenix (Eddington)

Daniel Day-Lewis

Dwayne Johnson

Other

Brendan Fraser (Rental Family)

73

12

7

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will we get synthetic kidneys before 2035?

Jun 18, 5:49 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

11931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

By what year will one of the United States of America elect all its US Representatives proportionally?

Jan 30, 9:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9597

OptionProbability

2055

2050

2040

2045

2035

2030

2025

61

57

47

46

33

18

1

Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

Jan 2, 3:18 PMSep 30, 2:16 PM

4390

OptionProbability

Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing)

Astrophysics or Cosmology

Condensed Matter Physics

Optics or Photonics

Atomic or Molecular Physics

Geophysics, Climate or Atmospheric Physics

Biophysics

Fluid dynamics

Semiconductor Physics

Superconductivity

Particle Physics

Thermodynamics

34

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

17

8

6

Will we get synthetic livers before 2035?

Jun 16, 10:13 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

30.46%chance

8383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will we get synthetic stomachs before 2035?

Jun 26, 11:48 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

38.19%chance

8329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will we get synthetic eyes before 2035?

Jun 21, 11:51 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

19.72%chance

7319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

50

Will I meaningfully choke from eating pills without fluids by 2030?

Nov 10, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

8171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

39

Will Gordon Ryan compete again before he gets old?

Apr 11, 10:45 AMJul 8, 12:59 AM

62.16%chance

590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

Will practical liquid breathing be demonstrated before 2040?

May 14, 7:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.29%chance

473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

38

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