OptionProbability
OpenAI
Google Deepmind
Anthropic
Meta
XAI
Deepseek
Manus AI
Huggingfaces
Tesla
Keen
CommaAI
stability.ai
Hugging Face
🤗 (hugging face)
HuggingFace (🤗)
~~Google~~ [SEE GOOGLE DEEPMIND]
Replit
Conjecture
Character.AI
Adept
NVIDIA
Apple
Midjourney
MosaicML
inflection.ai
Mistral AI
Moonshot AI
Huawei
Microsoft
ByteDance
ModelBest面壁智能
Singularity Net
Safe Superintelligence Inc
High-Flyer
Alibaba
Reflection AI
Thinking Machines
Krantz
Other
34
29
16
7
7
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
It is not possible to multitask
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
21
19
12
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
DeepMind
OpenAI
DeepSeek
Safe Superintelligence Inc
Anthropic
Meta
US Government
xAI
NVIDIA
Alibaba
None (No AI labs exist)
Thinking Machines
Stability AI
Tesla
Keen
CommaAI
Conjecture
Baidu
Amazon
Apple
Microsoft
Comma
Midjourney
High-Flyer
23
17
15
10
7
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16
I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?
Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?
Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?
Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?
Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads
Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?
Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?
By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay
By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?
Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)
Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026
Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031
Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?
Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?
Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?
Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?
Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?
Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?
Will we have 20+ this year?
Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?
Will we meet in the library at least once?
Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?
Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0