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Top stories

Inmates Flood Vendin-le-Vieil High-Security Wing in Coordinated Protest

Inmates Flood Vendin-le-Vieil High-Security Wing in Coordinated Protest

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for FO

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.33%chance

34462765805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9920

9638

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

74.88%chance

12094646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2342

545

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38%chance

18689109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11958

4561

Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 6:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.54%chance

28964435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7848

6367

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

26.24%chance

589801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6341

4559

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

434062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Spikeball: Hawken and Forrest vs Connor and Eli

Jan 26, 12:18 AMMay 16, 11:17 PM

00

OptionProbability

Hawken and Forrest

Eli and Connor

50

50

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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