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Top stories

Inmates Flood Vendin-le-Vieil High-Security Wing in Coordinated Protest

Inmates Flood Vendin-le-Vieil High-Security Wing in Coordinated Protest

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for FO

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

34862801596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11103

8478

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.99%chance

227122509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12922

3274

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80%chance

130106735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2642

458

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.15%chance

6110099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5753

4784

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.65%chance

135870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5679

2185

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Where will the next treasure from The Secret be found?

May 16, 3:59 PMDec 6, 4:57 PM

00

OptionProbability

San Francisco, CA

Charleston, SC

Roanoke Island, NC

St. Augustine, FL

Houston, TX

Milwaukee, WI

Montreal, QC

New Orleans, LA

New York, NY

Other

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Spikeball: Hawken and Forrest vs Connor and Eli

Jan 26, 12:18 AMMay 16, 11:17 PM

00

OptionProbability

Hawken and Forrest

Eli and Connor

50

50

Will Ford Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 3.2

3.2 - 3.4

3.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 3.8

3.8 - 4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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