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Prediction markets for Focus Labs

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4011

973

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

286057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

334

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

143923

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Mistral

Nvidia

Cohere (Command R+)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

Thinking Machines Lab

Reka AI

NexusFlow (Athene)

01 AI (Yi)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

100

100

100

100

100

82

82

78

40

31

22

22

22

18

16

11

10

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.59%chance

13874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

844

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will a SOTA model be trained with Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks by 2029?

May 3, 2:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.85%chance

16523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

369

27

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Mar 10, 8:36 PMMar 10, 8:36 PM

2250

OptionProbability

Headcount exceeds 150 employees by Dec 31, 2026

Announces revenue partnership beyond Nabla by Sep 30, 2026

Raises next funding round above $5B valuation by Mar 31, 2027

Releases open-source world model code by Dec 31, 2026

50

41

41

40

[Carlini questions] Value of most valuable "AI Lab" in billion USD in 2030

Mar 24, 1:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7222

OptionProbability

1000 - 9999

500 - 999

10,000 or above

100 - 499

0 - 49

50 - 99

53

15

13

8

6

5

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

65

21

11

4

Will lab-grown foie gras hold over 20% market share in the U.S. by 2026?

Dec 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.08%chance

6150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

74

Will McDonald's acquire a company focusing on lab grown/cultivated cell meat products by the end of 2027?

May 3, 2:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.91%chance

3140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

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