Focus Labs News

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.91%chance

4512481

OptionVotes

YES

1104

907

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

4011

973

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

184149

OptionProbability

Moonshot (Kimi)

Baidu (Ernie)

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Alibaba (Qwen)

Z.ai

Nvidia

Mistral

Thinking Machines Lab

Reka AI

Cohere (Command R+)

Safe Superintelligence / SSI

NexusFlow (Athene)

AI21 Labs (Jamba)

01 AI (Yi)

100

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.1%chance

161816

OptionVotes

YES

2283

438

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

Nov 27, 6:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

191150

OptionProbability

China

UAE

East/South-East Asia excl. China

Israel

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

YES

1221

822

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Mar 10, 8:36 PMMar 10, 8:36 PM

3260

OptionProbability

Headcount exceeds 150 employees by Dec 31, 2026

AMI goes public by Dec 31, 2030, through IPO, SPAC, RTO, or any other mechanism on any exchange

Announces revenue partnership beyond Nabla by Sep 30, 2026

Raises next funding round above $5B valuation by Mar 31, 2027

Releases open-source world model code by Dec 31, 2026

[Carlini questions] Value of most valuable "AI Lab" in billion USD in 2030

Mar 24, 1:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7222

OptionProbability

1000 - 9999

500 - 999

10,000 or above

100 - 499

0 - 49

50 - 99

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Will Until Labs preserve Ben Sasse?

Apr 10, 9:50 PMApr 10, 9:50 PM

14.95%chance

6152

OptionVotes

YES

239

Will lab-grown foie gras hold over 20% market share in the U.S. by 2026?

Dec 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.08%chance

6150

OptionVotes

YES

234

Will McDonald's acquire a company focusing on lab grown/cultivated cell meat products by the end of 2027?

May 3, 2:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.91%chance

3140

OptionVotes

YES

239

Focus Labs News

Prediction markets for Focus Labs

Prediction markets for Focus Labs

Prediction markets for Focus Labs

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

[Carlini questions] Value of most valuable "AI Lab" in billion USD in 2030

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Will Until Labs preserve Ben Sasse?

Will lab-grown foie gras hold over 20% market share in the U.S. by 2026?

Will McDonald's acquire a company focusing on lab grown/cultivated cell meat products by the end of 2027?

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