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Prediction markets for Focus Labs

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

561

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

17.1%chance

8712848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

1241

Andrej Karpathy's Eureka Labs valued at >$1B by end of 2027?

Oct 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.1%chance

161816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

438

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

81153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

770

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Jan 22, 4:51 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

3.15%chance

13890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

554

18

Will McDonald's acquire a company focusing on lab grown/cultivated cell meat products by the end of 2027?

May 3, 2:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.01%chance

4240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

30

Will Demis Hassabis still be at Google at the end of 2026?

Sep 1, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.53%chance

9183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

1

Will Until Labs preserve Ben Sasse?

Apr 10, 9:50 PMApr 10, 9:50 PM

17.51%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

46

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will lab-grown foie gras hold over 20% market share in the U.S. by 2026?

Dec 2, 9:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.08%chance

6150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

74

Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 9:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

59.64%chance

643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

223

191

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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