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Prediction markets for Fold

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.26%chance

758057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

938

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.66%chance

104271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

195

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

Dec 4, 11:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.59%chance

231435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1622

732

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will we have laundry folding machine by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

69.05%chance

211001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

709

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

82.94%chance

15860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

939

Will the folding iPhone include “iPhone” in the name?

Apr 16, 1:13 AMJan 2, 2:10 AM

91.81%chance

6685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

978

Before 2028, will popular mobile phones begin incorporating folding screens or other large moving parts?

Feb 9, 11:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.52%chance

12609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

793

Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less than $2000?

May 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.54%chance

12595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

976

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.9%chance

21563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

945

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.73%chance

18421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

942

Proportional to population, will the number of white collar jobs in the US decrease by five-fold by the year 2040?

Apr 16, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.87%chance

750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

93

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