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Prediction markets for Fold

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

70.14%chance

768157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

893

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

2.47%chance

125424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6286

159

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

Dec 4, 11:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

84.49%chance

251580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

666

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

32.8%chance

211576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

180

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will we have laundry folding machine by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

69.05%chance

211001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

709

Before 2028, will popular mobile phones begin incorporating folding screens or other large moving parts?

Feb 9, 11:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.04%chance

13759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

943

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.9%chance

21563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

945

Will Huggingface a fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:19 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

4.84%chance

7502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

630

35

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.73%chance

18421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

942

Will Mistral fold by 2028

Mar 23, 2:18 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

28%chance

598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

97

Effective cure for nasolabial folds by 2030?

Sep 26, 2:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.29%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

355

345

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