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Prediction markets for Fold

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

Will I win the FOLDED grand prize?

Jul 18, 10:19 AMDec 31, 11:10 AM

16.88%chance

135304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2219

451

Will Apple release a folding phone before 2026?

Feb 26, 4:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.87%chance

253138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3647

736

Will I be able to purchase a robot that folds my laundry for me by the end of 2030?

Dec 4, 11:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.59%chance

231435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1622

732

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

82.94%chance

15860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

939

Will we have laundry folding machine by 2030?

Feb 5, 11:04 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.89%chance

20700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

876

Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?

Feb 14, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.76%chance

20560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

943

Will Apple launch their first folding devices with one that costs less than $2000?

May 25, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.92%chance

11545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

921

FOLDED: Who will be the next to be eliminated?

Aug 2, 2:08 AMAug 3, 12:00 AM

7486

OptionProbability

@remedyrain (Wott)

@bagelfan

@bens

@evan (again)

@nikki

@100Anonymous

@Mattt

@koadma

@andri

@Kraalnaxx

@Quroe

@SimonWestlake

@LoganTurner

@121

@retr0id

34

33

33

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

30

28

17

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.73%chance

18421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

942

Before 2028, will popular mobile phones begin incorporating folding screens or other large moving parts?

Feb 9, 11:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

10352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

978

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