OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Premieres in 2027
Malfoy has white blonde hair
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Peeves is a reoccurring character
It's woke
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
mandrake root on screen
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Hermione is white
A house elf is shown on screen
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
At least one of the actors is transgender
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Premieres in 2026
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Hermione is black
Zendaya is cast in the show
Hermione is Indian
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Voldemort is a woman
Awkwafina is cast in the show
There will be seven CGI dwarves
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Keir Starmer is in it
Gandalf is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
99
98
97
97
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
91
90
88
84
83
83
83
78
78
74
74
73
68
66
65
65
65
64
63
63
58
55
55
53
52
50
50
45
43
42
41
36
34
34
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
27
25
25
25
23
22
21
20
20
15
14
13
12
11
10
10
9
8
8
8
6
6
6
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
95
89
85
85
84
83
80
80
79
79
79
77
77
76
76
75
72
72
68
67
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
59
59
58
58
57
57
52
50
50
45
45
45
45
44
41
41
41
40
40
39
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
35
34
33
33
32
32
32
32
31
31
30
30
29
28
28
26
26
25
25
24
23
21
21
21
20
20
19
18
18
17
15
15
15
14
13
12
11
11
10
8
8
8
7
7
3
2
0
0
OptionProbability
Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year
Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)
Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time
Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human
Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)
Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes
Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)
Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated
Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)
Solve novel cryptic crossword clues
Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)
Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time
Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)
Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)
Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.
Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user
Make correct Truchet tiles
1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human
Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools
Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)
Fold a paper airplane
Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human
Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".
Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.
Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public
Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)
teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus
Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson
Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance
Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder
Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed
Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission
independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year
Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman
Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)
voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold
Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved
Faster than light travel
Kill everyone - Liron
90
88
86
82
80
80
76
74
73
72
72
71
67
66
63
62
60
56
50
46
46
45
45
44
36
31
30
25
23
18
16
12
11
9
5
5
4
3
2
OptionProbability
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 4, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 5, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 6, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 7, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 8, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2024
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2024 on a day that Elon Musk also tweeted
Will @ManifoldMarkets's twitter account has more than 7000 followers in Jan 2024
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 9, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 10, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 11, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 12, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 13, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 14, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 15, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture before Sep 2024 (start counting from Apr 15)
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2025
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2025 on a day that Elon Musk also tweeted
Will Elon Musk tweet 4 or more times on Jan 5, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2026
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture before June 2024 (start counting from Apr 15)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
96
70
0
OptionProbability
D-R
D-D
R-D
R-R
one or more Third Party terms
Other
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
26
25
22
17
3
3
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)
TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government
Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made
The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict
The US has spies working in the North Korean government
"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started
The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects
The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season
The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests
The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries
Mattress Firm is a money laundering front
The UK did Nordstream
The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning
Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence
The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China
The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light
Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine
John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated
COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome
Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins
Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double
In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different
The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup
COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term
Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened
There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth
Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist
A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland
Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.
80
62
59
53
52
52
51
51
50
45
35
35
34
34
24
22
16
15
10
9
8
8
7
5
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline
Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7
Work with a professional
Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise
Altoids Smalls And Cold Water
Watch Huberman podcast: https://youtu.be/uXs-zPc63kM
71
65
50
50
50
31
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1154
904
OptionProbability
A team announces that AI solves any puzzle
A team using an OpenAI model has the “best” results
A team with a Google model has the “best” results
A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 10 hunt puzzles regardless of order and standard puzzle unlock rules
A team announces that an AI solved at least 1 hunt metapuzzle (regardless of whether it solved any earlier puzzles or associated feeders)
A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 5 hunt puzzles *following* standard hunt unlock rules (can only skip puzzles or do free unlocks if other teams given the same option). A free unlock is not a solve
At least three groups or teams publish writeups of testing/training/benchmarking/etc. AI on the hunt
A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 1 entire hunt round (metapuzzle and any feeder puzzles whose answers were used to solve the meta). Does not have to be an opening round
A team announces that an AI independently solved at least 20 hunt puzzles, regardless of order and standard puzzle unlock rules
A puzzle uses AI-generated art
100
50
50
47
35
35
34
31
29
0
OptionProbability
A millionaire
A reality TV star
A popular social media influencer (1M+ followers)
A prominent AI researcher/developer
A well-known author
A famous couple
A billionaire
A prominent tech CEO/founder
AGI with another AI
A mainstream musician/singer
A Hollywood celebrity (A-list)
The creator of the market.
Elon Musk
A member of Congress/Parliament
A professional athlete
Trump
92
81
81
69
59
49
47
45
45
43
37
36
27
27
24
13
OptionProbability
Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67487fe7-c8b8-8013-910f-722cce8032b7
[[Title]]: [[Link to a comment on this post explaining what to do]]
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37
