OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Premieres in 2027
Malfoy has white blonde hair
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Peeves is a reoccurring character
It's woke
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
mandrake root on screen
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Hermione is white
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
At least one of the actors is transgender
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Premieres in 2026
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Hermione is black
Hermione is Indian
Zendaya is cast in the show
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Voldemort is a woman
There will be seven CGI dwarves
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Keir Starmer is in it
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
HPMOR is referenced
Hagrid is black
Gandalf is black
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Fred and George have the same actor
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
99
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88
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83
78
78
74
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66
65
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59
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55
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52
45
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42
35
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15
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3
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3
3
3
3
3
2
1
OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
92
90
89
85
85
83
80
79
78
78
77
76
76
74
73
73
72
72
71
70
63
62
62
61
61
60
60
58
58
57
57
52
50
50
48
45
45
45
44
44
42
41
41
41
41
40
39
37
37
37
37
36
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30
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29
29
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28
28
28
26
26
25
25
24
23
21
20
19
19
18
15
14
14
14
13
11
10
9
9
8
7
5
5
3
3
0
0
OptionProbability
Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)
Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human
Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time
Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year
Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)
Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes
Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)
Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated
Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)
Solve novel cryptic crossword clues
Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)
Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)
Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time
Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)
Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.
Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user
Make correct Truchet tiles
1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human
Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools
Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)
Fold a paper airplane
Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human
Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".
Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.
Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public
Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)
teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus
Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson
Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance
Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder
Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed
Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission
independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year
Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman
Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)
voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold
Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved
Faster than light travel
Kill everyone - Liron
88
86
86
80
80
80
76
74
73
72
72
72
71
66
63
62
60
56
50
46
46
45
45
44
36
31
30
25
23
18
16
12
11
9
5
5
4
3
2
OptionProbability
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 4, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 5, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 6, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 7, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 8, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2024
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2024 on a day that Elon Musk also tweeted
Will @ManifoldMarkets's twitter account has more than 7000 followers in Jan 2024
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 9, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 10, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 11, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 12, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 13, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 14, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 15, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture before Sep 2024 (start counting from Apr 15)
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2025
Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2025 on a day that Elon Musk also tweeted
Will Elon Musk tweet 4 or more times on Jan 5, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2026
Will Elon Musk change his profile picture before June 2024 (start counting from Apr 15)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
96
74
0
OptionProbability
Taylor Swift engaged
Sweden joins NATO
Death Stranding 2 out
Hollow Knight Silksong released
Sailing skill releases for runescape
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube
Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Super Bowl LIX kickoff
Chat gpt 6 releases
Taylor Swift married
King Charles no longer king of UK
Windows 12 released
Kingdom Hearts 4 out
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
5th bitcoin halving
Haunted Chocolatier releases
twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users
manifold reaches 4000 engaged users
Star Citizen releases
someone reaches 10B profit on manifold
a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time
Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)
6th bitcoin halving
Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens
ukraine joins nato
assange extradited to usa
LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal
a Human has died on moon
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
95
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
85
80
80
76
73
72
60
54
31
25
19
OptionProbability
D-D
D-R
R-D
R-R
one or more Third Party terms
Other
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
Resolves to NO following Trump Reelection
34
23
20
14
3
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)
TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government
Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made
The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict
The US has spies working in the North Korean government
"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started
The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects
The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season
The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests
The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries
Mattress Firm is a money laundering front
The UK did Nordstream
The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning
Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence
The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China
The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light
Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine
John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated
COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome
Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins
Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double
In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different
The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup
COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term
Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened
There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth
Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist
A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland
Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.
80
62
59
53
52
52
51
51
50
45
35
35
34
34
24
22
16
15
10
9
8
8
7
5
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline
Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7
Work with a professional
Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise
Altoids Smalls And Cold Water
Watch Huberman podcast: https://youtu.be/uXs-zPc63kM
71
65
50
50
45
31
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1154
904
OptionProbability
He is dead or incapacitated, due to an unintentional medical mishap or injury
No answers resolve by resolution date (5/12/26)
He was murdered
He got lost while on a walk or hike
He is dead, due to suicide
He was abducted or killed by a non-government associated individual or group
The disappearance is related to UFO/UAP knowledge or theories
He was abducted or killed by individuals following an official or unofficial action of the US Government
He was abducted or killed by individuals following an official or unofficial action of a foreign government
He is alive and well, but choosing to remain hidden
62
61
45
37
36
26
25
22
9
9
OptionProbability
Reckless
Leela Chess Zero
Torch
Stockfish
Any of the following: Plentychess / Integral / Obsidian / Berserk
82
8
4
3
3
