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Ron Weasley is a redhead

Snape is black

Harry Potter is white

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

Fred and George are twins irl

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

Premieres in 2026

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Peeves is a reoccurring character

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

It's woke

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

mandrake root on screen

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

A house elf is shown on screen

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

Dobby makes an appearance

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

At least one of the actors is transgender

It ends on a cliff hanger

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

Hermione is white

Hermione is Indian

Features an explicitly transgender character

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

Premieres in 2027

actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting

Awkwafina is cast in the show

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

There will be seven CGI dwarves

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

Keir Starmer is in it

set in 2025

set in the 2020s

Adolf Hitler is mentioned

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

We get AGI before it premieres

Voldemort is a woman

Hagrid is black

Fred and George have the same actor

HPMOR is referenced

Gandalf is black

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

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Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

A country declares war on Israel

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran undergoes a regime change

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Iran loses territory

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

China formally declares war on another country

China invades Taiwan

Any country leaves NATO

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

USA leaves NATO

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

Sudanese Civil War ends

Israel loses territory

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on another country

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on Iran

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iranian troops enter Israel

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A country declares war on United States

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Fold a paper airplane

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Make correct Truchet tiles

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

Kill everyone - Liron

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Increase water by 50 g

it needs more salt

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Use Iodized salt

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Add garlic

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Strawberry jelly filling

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.

put ketchup and cheese on it

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Add slurs to it

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Make the bread taste good

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use lemonade instead of water.

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Taste the bread

put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off

Buy chemical bread improvers

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)

Make banana bread

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Add cheese inside it and also sausage

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Eat it slowly and focus on the taste

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag

Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising

Make the bread great again

Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.

Add caffeine to the bread

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Follow a recipe online

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour

Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Bake for 15 more minutes

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Replace salt with sugar

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Combine all answers that are unresolved at the time you try this one

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Add banana

Add poppy seeds

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 4, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 5, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 6, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 7, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 8, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2024

Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2024 on a day that Elon Musk also tweeted

Will @ManifoldMarkets's twitter account has more than 7000 followers in Jan 2024

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 9, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 10, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 11, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 12, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 13, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 14, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk tweet 2 or more times on Jan 15, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk change his profile picture before Sep 2024 (start counting from Apr 15)

Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2025

Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2025 on a day that Elon Musk also tweeted

Will Elon Musk tweet 4 or more times on Jan 5, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET

Will Elon Musk change his profile picture in 2026

Taylor Swift engaged

Taylor Swift married

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Hollow Knight Silksong released

Sailing skill releases for runescape

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

Chat gpt 6 releases

twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users

Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube

Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Super Bowl LIX kickoff

King Charles no longer king of UK

Windows 12 released

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

5th bitcoin halving

Haunted Chocolatier releases

manifold reaches 4000 engaged users

Star Citizen releases

someone reaches 10B profit on manifold

a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time

Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)

6th bitcoin halving

Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens

ukraine joins nato

assange extradited to usa

LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal

Take a nicotine antagonist like Varenicline, Bupropion or Nortriptyline

Follow ChatGPT's advice: https://chatgpt.com/share/67486f18-6240-8013-8944-65759aafd2a7

Work with a professional

Replace Habit With Heavy Exercise

Altoids Smalls And Cold Water

YES

Front-facing portrait, plaid shirt

Side profile, plaid shirt

Outdoor sweater photo

Timothee Chalamet pool scene, CMBYN

Jini Jane from Kiirac

Curtis Yarvin hand, painting gifted by Thiel

Mensch, large-eyed child painting

Young Robin Hanson

Young Robin Hanson FaceApped as a woman

Munch self-portrait

Toni Hanna album cover

Side profile, plaid shirt, closed mouth

Before 1/1/2027

Before 12/1/2026

Before 11/1/2026

Before 10/1/2026

Before 9/1/2026

Before 8/1/2026