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Prediction markets for For

Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 20, 12:02 AMFeb 20, 4:59 AM

598664704

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Donald Trump Jr

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump, Sr

Ron Desantis

Glenn Youngkin

Tulsi Gabbard

None

Nikki Haley

Tim Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy

Tucker Carlson

Josh Hawley

Greg Abbott

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Kristi Noem

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Steven Mnuchin

Brian Kemp

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

Ivanka Trump

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

Paul Ryan

49

15

8

8

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.91%chance

176211240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5780

3435

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.01%chance

9275757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75845

45839

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.74%chance

3464174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14016

7134

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3248366

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

31

27

24

17

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 5:32 PMJul 2, 4:59 AM

52.2%chance

11846361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10906

9055

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?

Jan 23, 12:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.88%chance

4643099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15055

6530

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.89%chance

11136211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30182

3313

Will a U.S. citizen be deported to a foreign country for at least a month?

Apr 28, 9:32 PMJan 1, 10:31 PM

66.14%chance

227390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13977

7154

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

63.05%chance

796800

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14152

8635

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10481

9520

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