for Business and Trade News

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

185843

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

1545

648

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

162451

OptionVotes

YES

1140

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Jan 13, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51448

OptionProbability

NVIDIA

Alphabet

Microsoft

Apple

Amazon

Broadcom

Tesla

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.78%chance

10860

OptionVotes

YES

1646

665

When will the LCBO put American alcohol back on its shelves?

Dec 24, 12:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3630

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

2027 or later

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Nov 21, 11:19 PMJun 30, 10:12 PM

8628

OptionProbability

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

Other

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

1455

887

US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035.

Jan 8, 6:33 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

9.88%chance

7388

OptionVotes

YES

190

121

I make a coin-pusher game?

Dec 3, 9:43 PMApr 5, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

180

Will UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant or his replacement visit Taiwan before 2028?

Jan 3, 3:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.14%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

100

for Business and Trade News

Prediction markets for for Business and Trade

Prediction markets for for Business and Trade

Prediction markets for for Business and Trade

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

When will the LCBO put American alcohol back on its shelves?

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

US Congress members fight with deadly weapons in Congress before 2035.

I make a coin-pusher game?

Will UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant or his replacement visit Taiwan before 2028?

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Latest stories