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Prediction markets for for Business and Trade

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.79%chance

4612947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

674

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Feb 15, 8:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

86370

OptionProbability

Above $500

Below $100

$100 - $149

$150 - $199

$200 - $249

$250 - $299

$300 - $349

$350 - $399

$400 - $449

$450 - $500

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?

Feb 28, 8:12 AMMar 7, 10:59 PM

195895

OptionProbability

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

Below $50bn

$50 - 99bn

$100 - 199bn

$200 - 299bn

74

20

3

1

1

1

1

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

212895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

19

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Jan 13, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82446

OptionProbability

NVIDIA

Alphabet

Apple

Microsoft

Amazon

Broadcom

Tesla

95

89

88

84

75

37

20

Will a publicly traded asteroid‑mining company exist by EOY 2050?

Mar 24, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.02%chance

81443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

91

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

535

SpaceX pivots away from xAI

Jun 26, 6:07 PMJun 28, 3:59 AM

26.74%chance

3655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

604

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Now Google buys Dave & Buster’s in 2036

Feb 10, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.23%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Now Target buys Starbucks on 2032

Feb 10, 2:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.89%chance

565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will June 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

Jun 8, 1:14 PMJul 16, 12:25 PM

64.68%chance

354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

64

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