for Business and Trade News

$1000bn+

$500 - 999bn

$300 - 499bn

$200 - 299bn

$100 - 199bn

Below $50bn

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

No

Trump understands some aspects but misunderstands the broader economic consequences

No, Trump is acting impulsively without understanding the economic implications

Trump is following advisors' strategies rather than his own understanding

Trump is deliberately creating uncertainty as a negotiation tactic

Yes

Yes, Trump has a clear strategy and understanding of his trade war goals

Trump understands the political benefits but not the economic impacts

Trump's understanding is evolving as the trade war progresses

YES

NO