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Prediction markets for for Business and Trade

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

286057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

334

Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?

May 29, 8:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2%chance

162451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

26

(Iran war) Will my wedding happen?

Mar 13, 11:22 AMMay 3, 8:45 AM

50%chance

291548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

535

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Feb 15, 8:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

61085

OptionProbability

Above $500

$300 - $349

$350 - $399

$400 - $449

$450 - $500

$250 - $299

$150 - $199

$200 - $249

Below $100

$100 - $149

54

7

7

7

6

5

4

4

3

3

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Now Amazon buys CEC Entertainment on 2031

Feb 10, 2:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.95%chance

5157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will the unemployment rate in the New York City metropolitan area be higher in March 2026 than in February 2026?

Feb 24, 8:45 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

67.01%chance

4124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

70

Will Casey Means be confirmed as Surgeon General?

Feb 26, 8:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.59%chance

460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.08%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Now Target buys Starbucks on 2032

Feb 10, 2:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will the PRC terminate ECFA before 2028?

Jan 20, 5:27 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

49.14%chance

312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

98

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