for Policy News

Trump Administration, Stephen Miller to Hold Judge Brian Murphy Accountable for Defying Supreme Court Deportation Ruling to South Sudan, Promises "Fireworks"

1 month ago

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.42%chance

469617

OptionVotes

YES

6356

157

Will an effective accelerationist (e/acc) be in an important AI policy role for the White House before the end of 2025?

Jul 2, 11:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.05%chance

144432

OptionVotes

YES

1085

922

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 4:09 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

27.49%chance

42165

OptionVotes

YES

1624

616

Will Mark Zuckerberg blame Trump threats/pressure for Meta content policy changes? (By March 2029)

Jan 18, 2:04 AMMar 31, 1:29 PM

27.66%chance

9930

OptionVotes

YES

1617

618

China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

Aug 20, 8:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.05%chance

13330

OptionVotes

YES

1209

915

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Feb 4, 11:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

11205

OptionVotes

YES

180

150

Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.04%chance

10185

OptionVotes

YES

194

160

China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

Aug 20, 8:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

214

119

In the age of automation, will universal basic income be a necessary policy for economic stability?

Dec 10, 6:34 AMJan 9, 6:59 AM

57.98%chance

11117

OptionVotes

YES

251

174

Will Tainui be successful suing the government for their Maori language policy?

Jan 12, 7:19 PMOct 20, 6:59 AM

65.62%chance

394

OptionVotes

YES

Will "Lessons from the Iraq War for AI policy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 3:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

1000

What Will Happen In or before January 2026 [ADD RESPONSE]

Dec 4, 8:54 AMFeb 1, 6:29 PM

OptionProbability

EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters definitive period

Federal Gift and Estate Tax Exemptions expire

Major changes to UK GCSE exam policies take effect

Significant Microsoft product reaches end of support

New EU carbon pricing regulations for imported goods begin

Changes to US tax exemption limits occur

Latest stories

Jun 24, 2025
Jun 24, 2025
US Judiciary
Boston
Politics
Trump Administration, Stephen Miller to Hold Judge Brian Murphy Accountable for Defying Supreme Court Deportation Ruling to South Sudan, Promises "Fireworks"
Authors
18
1 month ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

for Policy News

Top stories

Prediction markets for for Policy

Prediction markets for for Policy

Prediction markets for for Policy

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Will an effective accelerationist (e/acc) be in an important AI policy role for the White House before the end of 2025?

Will any veto rights for EUs Common Foreign and Security Policy be removed during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

Will Mark Zuckerberg blame Trump threats/pressure for Meta content policy changes? (By March 2029)

China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?

Will the US implement a policy for rapid shutdown of large compute clusters and training runs by 2028?

China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

In the age of automation, will universal basic income be a necessary policy for economic stability?

Will Tainui be successful suing the government for their Maori language policy?

Will "Lessons from the Iraq War for AI policy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What Will Happen In or before January 2026 [ADD RESPONSE]

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram