OptionProbability
A (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran.
Opening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.
A reduction or withdrawal of U.S. naval forces from the Persian Gulf.
A permanent end to the war and a guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
A formal commitment to end Iranian proxy activities in the Middle East.
Strict international, intrusive monitoring of Iran's nuclear facilities.
A permanent cap on Iranian uranium enrichment levels.
A restriction on Iran's development or testing of long-range ballistic missiles.
An end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
The deal will not be reached or finalized by December 31, 2026.
96
95
90
9
8
6
5
4
1
[ 3 ; 6 [
[ 9 ; 12 [
0
∞
[ 6 ; 9 [
[ 12 ; 15 [
[ 1 ; 3 [
[ 15 ; 18 [
[ 21 ; +∞ [
[ 18 ; 21 [
30
22
11
3
OptionVotes
NO
YES
178
56
197
51
