Force Prime News

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

5.36%chance

567211

OptionVotes

YES

4200

238

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

325572

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

382938

OptionVotes

YES

700

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202167

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?

Jan 22, 12:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.15%chance

191605

OptionVotes

YES

584

Who will resign first?

Jan 12, 3:07 AMDec 31, 3:03 AM

141306

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Kemi Badenoch

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

82%chance

121189

OptionVotes

YES

213

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55.29%chance

22923

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu remain Prime Minister until the end of Macron's term?

Jun 21, 2:27 PMMay 13, 11:59 PM

55.23%chance

9188

OptionVotes

YES

127

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Jan 22, 5:20 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

34.52%chance

9163

OptionVotes

YES

138

Will Netanyahu attack Iran before next Israeli government is formed, and before repeat elections are called?

Nov 3, 5:18 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

36.85%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

131

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

145

Force Prime News

Prediction markets for Force Prime

Prediction markets for Force Prime

Prediction markets for Force Prime

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Specific Events in the Iran War

Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?

Who will resign first?

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Will Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu remain Prime Minister until the end of Macron's term?

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Will Netanyahu attack Iran before next Israeli government is formed, and before repeat elections are called?

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

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