Force Prime News

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

325572

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

13.27%chance

545568

OptionVotes

YES

2556

391

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Mar 22, 1:13 PMOct 27, 11:59 PM

114401

OptionProbability

Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time

Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index

Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed

General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time

No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)

Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections

Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency

100

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

382938

OptionVotes

YES

700

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

202003

OptionProbability

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

100

Prediction markets for Force Prime

Prediction markets for Force Prime

Prediction markets for Force Prime

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Specific Events in the Iran War

Who will resign first?

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Will Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu remain Prime Minister until the end of Macron's term?

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

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