Force Prime News

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6722441

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

Other

2030

2024

2025

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

305456

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

15.47%chance

535363

OptionVotes

YES

2338

428

What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

Dec 23, 9:57 PMMar 24, 11:59 PM

2.44%chance

324153

OptionVotes

YES

1327

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Mar 22, 1:13 PMOct 27, 11:59 PM

102357

OptionProbability

Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time

Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed

Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index

Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency

General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time

Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections

No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)

100

Specific Events in the Iran War

Mar 2, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161494

OptionProbability

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

High Profile flips - 2+ named officers go on video via Starlink calling on units to stand down or defect.

Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?

Feb 17, 2:53 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

97.96%chance

91363

OptionVotes

YES

692

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

341272

OptionVotes

YES

602

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

40%chance

14686

OptionVotes

YES

122

Who will resign first?

Jan 12, 3:07 AMDec 31, 3:03 AM

10281

OptionProbability

Kemi Badenoch

Keir Starmer

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Jan 22, 5:20 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

37.61%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

129

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When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Specific Events in the Iran War

Will Mark Carney still be Prime Minister of Canada on July 1st 2026?

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Who will resign first?

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

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