Force Prime News

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6020927

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Jun 16, 7:07 PMJan 30, 8:59 PM

305456

OptionProbability

1 Jan 2032 or later

Between 1 Jan 2028 and 31 Dec 2029

Between 1 Jan 2030 and 31 Dec 2031

Between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2027

Before Dec 31 2025

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 2:44 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

18.79%chance

515104

OptionVotes

YES

2079

481

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Mar 22, 1:13 PMOct 27, 11:59 PM

82213

OptionProbability

Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time

Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed

Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index

Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency

General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time

Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections

No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)

100

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

341272

OptionVotes

YES

602

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.68%chance

11614

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9.06%chance

2253

OptionVotes

YES

317

What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

Dec 23, 9:57 PMMar 24, 11:59 PM

52.04%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?

Jan 22, 12:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.45%chance

6198

OptionVotes

YES

114

Who will resign first?

Jan 12, 3:07 AMDec 31, 3:03 AM

565

OptionProbability

Kemi Badenoch

Keir Starmer

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Jan 22, 5:20 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

37.61%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

129

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When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Will Syria hold legitimate national leadership elections before the end of 2026?

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Will Trump attack Greenland in 2026?

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

Will there be national elections in Spain in 2026 to elect a new prime minister?

Who will resign first?

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

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