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Top stories

Ukraine Allows Men Aged 18-22 to Leave with Zelenskyy Approval; 11,000 Depart in Half Day Amid Manpower Concerns

Ukraine Allows Men Aged 18-22 to Leave with Zelenskyy Approval; 11,000 Depart in Half Day Amid Manpower Concerns

Authors

22

10 months ago

Prediction markets for forces

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

30.29%chance

10218481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2249

1757

If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?

Oct 24, 8:42 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.63%chance

526835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

698

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.53%chance

284174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2528

395

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

Can White force a draw without winning in chess?

May 22, 4:12 AMMay 11, 4:59 AM

82.85%chance

212204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1558

829

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

26%chance

381527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

480

Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?

Mar 13, 5:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

191491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

838

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.64%chance

291413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

948

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.57%chance

111235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

939

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will we discover a fifth fundamental force before 2050?

Dec 6, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.35%chance

27529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

989

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

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