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Top stories

Ukraine Allows Men Aged 18-22 to Leave with Zelenskyy Approval; 11,000 Depart in Half Day Amid Manpower Concerns

Ukraine Allows Men Aged 18-22 to Leave with Zelenskyy Approval; 11,000 Depart in Half Day Amid Manpower Concerns

Authors

22

8 months ago

Prediction markets for forces

Will USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?

Jan 8, 5:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.62%chance

7224827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2632

380

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

27.21%chance

10118004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2478

1665

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?

Mar 4, 8:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.46%chance

547016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

807

If China attacks Taiwan, will they fight US forces within a month?

Oct 24, 8:42 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

47.4%chance

526794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

659

Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?

May 18, 2:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14%chance

274124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2478

403

Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?

Mar 13, 5:24 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

191491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

838

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.64%chance

291413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

948

Will JPMorgan force their employees to use generative AI for analyses, reports or other work in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.57%chance

111235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

939

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will we discover a fifth fundamental force before 2050?

Dec 6, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.35%chance

27529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

989

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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