Form Four News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Form Four
OptionProbability
97
94
90
85
80
65
31
3
0
Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM
45.99%chance
254628
OptionVotes
1084
923
Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
58.71%chance
214219
OptionVotes
1192
839
OptionProbability
50
15
15
8
8
5
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM
152009
OptionProbability
44
30
27
26
26
26
26
23
OptionVotes
2779
360
Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM
28.12%chance
251306
OptionVotes
1669
510
OptionProbability
93
93
61
50
50
45
45
45
37
17
In what year will an animal be brought to live birth after being gestated entirely ex vivo?
Nov 27, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5110
OptionProbability
36
29
11
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
33
25
25
17
Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?
Aug 8, 9:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
62.65%chance
450
OptionVotes
130
77
OptionProbability
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
5