Forma News
Prediction markets for Forma
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
Mar 4, 8:53 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM
76.59%chance
288447
OptionVotes
1610
695
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM
79.55%chance
496620
OptionVotes
1756
659
OptionVotes
1108
574
Will Obama be formally associated with Anthropic before 2030?
May 23, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.08%chance
132055
OptionVotes
3102
407
Shayne Coplan (Polymarket CEO) formally charged with a felony before 2028?
Mar 27, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.44%chance
171486
OptionVotes
2340
427
Will Drake be formally charged with a crime before the end of 2028?
May 5, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
21.58%chance
291472
OptionVotes
3090
1574
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
60%chance
321333
OptionVotes
1021
951
Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?
May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM
22.82%chance
111221
OptionVotes
1842
547
Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊
Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
33.27%chance
24855
OptionVotes
1065
806
Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?
Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
23.63%chance
24759
OptionVotes
1229
897
Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
70.07%chance
8540
OptionVotes
1530
654
Will the Massachusetts all-party primary voting format ballot measure pass?
Jun 23, 11:37 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM
44.14%chance
8347
OptionVotes
1125
889