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Prediction markets for Formality

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

7.53%chance

308572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

286

Will Joe Biden ever be formally diagnosed with Parkinson's?

Jul 8, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.41%chance

206216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2786

359

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Jan 5, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

31.57%chance

312359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

579

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.11%chance

82353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2072

483

Will Drake be formally charged with a crime before the end of 2028?

May 5, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.18%chance

292272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3890

1390

Will Obama be formally associated with Anthropic before 2030?

May 23, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.11%chance

132059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3098

407

Shayne Coplan (Polymarket CEO) formally charged with a felony before 2028?

Mar 27, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.03%chance

171986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2840

352

Will the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029?

Sep 15, 8:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.38%chance

201843

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1619

618

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.41%chance

331343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

961

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

28.27%chance

261005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

956

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

23.63%chance

24759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

897

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