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Prediction markets for Formality

Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?

Mar 4, 8:53 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

74.07%chance

288339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

736

Will Joe Biden ever be formally diagnosed with Parkinson's?

Jul 8, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.58%chance

206213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2764

362

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

69.12%chance

455894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

825

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

Jan 5, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

31.8%chance

302354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

574

Shayne Coplan (Polymarket CEO) formally charged with a felony before 2028?

Mar 27, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.44%chance

171486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will Drake be formally charged with a crime before the end of 2028?

May 5, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.58%chance

291472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3090

1574

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

321333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

951

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.72%chance

23709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

913

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

45.7%chance

21549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

551

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.89%chance

8340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

752

Will "Lies, Damned Lies, and Proofs: Formal Methods..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 11:50 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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