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Prediction markets for Fortress

Will Portal 3, Team Fortress 3, or Half-Life 3 come out before 2033?

Jun 28, 4:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.12%chance

466279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

896

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

86.61%chance

241325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

771

Will Team Fortress 3 be announced before January 1st 2030?

Nov 25, 2:47 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.05%chance

201261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

777

Will Half Life 3 release before Team Fortress 3?

Mar 30, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.11%chance

171185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1557

823

Which of these Team Fortress 2 weapons will have their stats adjusted before 2029?

Nov 17, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7595

OptionProbability

Fan O'War

Candy Cane

Your Eternal Reward

Gas Passer

Liberty Launcher

Righteous Bison

Cleaner's Carbine

Sandman

Pomson 6000

Sharpened Volcano Fragment

Tribalman's Shiv

Back Scatter

Ullapool Caber

Quick Fix

Tomislav

Market Gardener

50

50

50

41

41

40

39

39

39

39

39

39

35

31

29

29

What will be the price of Team Fortress 2 earbuds at the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3335

OptionProbability

$18 - $20

$15 - $17

$21 - $23

$24+

$12 - $14

Below $12

30

26

26

10

5

3

Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Team Fortress 3 releases?

Mar 24, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.92%chance

13315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

948

How many days will it take until Team Fortress 2's next major update?

Sep 13, 2:01 AMJan 1, 3:00 AM

3284

OptionProbability

2890 - 3699

3700 - 4499

4500 - 5299

Above 6000

5300 - 6000

Below 2890

20

20

20

20

17

2

Will dwarves in dwarf fortress try to "break out" of their sim by accessing and using data from outside of DF?

Mar 26, 7:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.74%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

94

New Firefly before new Team Fortress 2 weapon?

Mar 23, 7:07 AMSep 23, 7:06 AM

480

OptionProbability

New Firefly first

New TF2 weapon first

72

28

Will we get asi before dwarf fortress 1.0?

Jun 26, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, or @KatanHya be put in a dwarf fortress plot?

Apr 8, 4:43 AMApr 16, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

111

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