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Prediction markets for Fortress

Will Portal 3, Team Fortress 3, or Half-Life 3 come out before 2033?

Jun 28, 4:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.81%chance

466224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

915

Will Dwarf Fortress still be receiving regular updates when James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases?

Jan 17, 5:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

86.17%chance

231275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1821

779

Will Team Fortress 3 be announced before January 1st 2030?

Nov 25, 2:47 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.05%chance

201261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

777

Will Half Life 3 release before Team Fortress 3?

Mar 30, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.11%chance

171185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1557

823

Will a new official weapon be added to Team Fortress 2 before EOY 2029?

Jan 15, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

17611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

89

Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Team Fortress 3 releases?

Mar 24, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.92%chance

13315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

948

How many days will it take until Team Fortress 2's next major update?

Sep 13, 2:01 AMJan 1, 3:00 AM

3284

OptionProbability

2890 - 3699

3700 - 4499

4500 - 5299

Above 6000

5300 - 6000

Below 2890

20

20

20

20

17

2

Will Scream Fortress 2026 have 6 or more new maps? [Team Fortress 2] [TF2]

Oct 13, 7:09 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

21%chance

11269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

358

127

Will dwarves in dwarf fortress try to "break out" of their sim by accessing and using data from outside of DF?

Mar 26, 7:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.74%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

94

Dwarf fortress uses an LLM or AGI to generate better lore for the world by mid 2028

Jan 3, 6:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

17%chance

8175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

119

Will the Cleaner's Carbine in Team Fortress 2 get a significant stat adjustment before 2030?

Nov 10, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.87%chance

469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, or @KatanHya be put in a dwarf fortress plot?

Apr 8, 4:43 AMApr 16, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

111

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