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Prediction markets for Forum
Will the EA Forum or LessWrong start using EigenKarma by 2025 (public experiments included)?
Feb 9, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.99%chance
263528
OptionVotes
4041
585
What will the dominant social media protocol be at the end of 2028?
Apr 29, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
341621
OptionProbability
85
13
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
19700
OptionVotes
1003
994
Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?
Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM
45.63%chance
13471
OptionVotes
1165
825
What military secrets will be leaked this year on the War Thunder gaming forums?
Jan 8, 3:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
12380
OptionProbability
100
100
67
49
40
35
26
0
Will there be a leak of military secrets or sensitive information on the War Thunder game forums in 2026?
Jun 23, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
82.82%chance
9350
OptionVotes
220
46
Which of the following ACX Grants Impact Certificates will be bought back at a higher value than they were sold for?
Mar 7, 5:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
8199
OptionProbability
75
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
40
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
OptionProbability
100
62
58
58
53
31
29
26
20
20
Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026?
Jan 10, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
64.32%chance
468
OptionVotes
127
97
Will College Confidential forums still survive by EOY2031?
Mar 24, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.87%chance
312
OptionVotes
102
98
WIll Nathan Cheng outlive more than 90% of the participants of 2022 Future Forum?
Aug 28, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100


