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Top stories

WEF Clears Klaus Schwab, Names Larry Fink and André Hoffmann Interim Co-Chairs

WEF Clears Klaus Schwab, Names Larry Fink and André Hoffmann Interim Co-Chairs

Authors

30

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Forum

CI2026: Will the World Economic Forum elect Christine Lagarde in November?

Oct 16, 12:32 PMNov 30, 10:59 PM

69.25%chance

292012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

48

What will the dominant social media protocol be at the end of 2028?

Apr 29, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

361697

OptionProbability

AT protocol (Bluesky)

ActivityPub (Mastodon)

Other

Other, not launched before 2024

Forums and/or BBSes make a huge comeback

Other, launched before 2024

Threads

Farcaster

Nostr

Bluesky

Hive (hive.blog)

Mana-channel (Manifold, if we ever do it)

cohost

Discord

Tumblr

RSS

85

7

4

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

Will there be a leak of military secrets or sensitive information on the War Thunder game forums in 2027?

Aug 8, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.31%chance

11140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

51

Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026?

Jan 10, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.32%chance

468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

97

Will https://clawthreads.com/ (AI Agents forum) survive into EOY2029?

Feb 27, 1:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.26%chance

668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will College Confidential forums still survive by EOY2031?

Mar 24, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.87%chance

312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will I attend the Timing Research Forum 5 (TRF5) conference?

May 30, 5:04 PMApr 13, 5:04 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

WIll Nathan Cheng outlive more than 90% of the participants of 2022 Future Forum?

Aug 28, 8:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

$M50 for each example of an "EA Forum Wrapped" being posted on twitter (before this bounty was created)

Jan 9, 7:48 PM

00

Do you check the Manifold Forum?

Jan 6, 2:02 AM

260

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