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Forward Research News
Prediction markets for Forward Research
Prediction markets for Forward Research
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
39%
chance
27
4155
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1253
801
2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
Mar 11, 12:08 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
26.97%
chance
25
1329
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1017
852
Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) a significant component of publicly known SOTA alignment techniques by 2028
Sep 16, 9:35 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
14.13%
chance
15
490
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1236
906
Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Dec 31, 4:21 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
20%
chance
10
274
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1035
975
Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry
Jan 27, 10:51 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
16.2%
chance
11
274
Option
Votes
YES
NO
227
44
By 2030, will we have a quantitative analysis on the relative QALYs lost by the death of one homosexual vs. one soldier?
Nov 18, 7:01 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
20.91%
chance
5
75
Option
Votes
YES
NO
183
104
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
Oct 29, 1:25 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
45.25%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
110
91
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