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Prediction markets for Founders

Cluely founders convicted of crime before 2028?

May 28, 2:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

1312567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

Will Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 6, 3:09 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

91.22%chance

154816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3068

482

Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:12 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.9%chance

16897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

953

Will any of the Manifold founders go on Shark Tank or Dragon's Den before 2026?

Nov 22, 11:02 PMDec 30, 8:31 PM

2.36%chance

9843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

839

88

Will Jack Dorsey (Co-founder of Twitter) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 2, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.73%chance

17804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

937

Will Brian Armstrong (founder of Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 27, 11:22 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.44%chance

18638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

965

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

Will "AI safety undervalues founders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 7:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will Emad Mostaque (founder of Stability AI) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Jun 8, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.09%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

57

Will Zhong Shanshan (founder of Nongfu Spring) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 15, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.25%chance

5114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

51

Will Tadashi Yanai (founder of Fast Retailing) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 27, 2:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.32%chance

349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

45

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