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Prediction markets for Founders First

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.69%chance

191382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

799

Who will be the next Prophet-President of the Mormon Church? (LDS)

Feb 10, 7:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13956

OptionProbability

Dallin Oaks

Jeff Holland

Henry Eyring

Dieter Uchtdorf

David Bednar

Quentin Cook

Todd Christofferson

Neil Andersen

Ronald Rasband

Gary Stevenson

52

22

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

1

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

Before 2026, will any government entity in the US announce they are investigating David Sacks?

Mar 3, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.95%chance

7305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

319

31

What price will Meta's consumer smart glasses be?

Nov 4, 7:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

29.39%chance

3251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

If convicted, which prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sent to?

Aug 12, 3:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3238

OptionProbability

FCI Otisville

USP Lompoc

FCI Lompoc

Other

FCI Herlong

FPC Pensacola

FPC Yankton

FPC Montgomery

FPC Duluth

FCI Cumberland

USP Canaan

USP Lewisburg

FCI Morgantown

FCI Beckley

FCI Schuylkill

28

8

8

8

7

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will any top economist author or coauthor a paper on the journal Seeds of Science?

Aug 6, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.84%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

86

>10% of companies (>12 months old) from AIM's Founding to Give get into YC before EOY 2030?

Mar 15, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

82

Will Hubris ship in a non-Oxide Computer Company product this decade?

Sep 1, 12:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

Help my house find a new roommate

Aug 15, 5:05 PMAug 16, 6:59 AM

00

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

50

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